MatchWiz
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MLS Match Board — Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Every MLS match on Wednesday, October 4, 2023 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches
ML167-162+4.6u
Over 2.5199-130−4.0u
BTTS208-121+0.9u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 201 of 329 on Over 2.5, 91 of 329 on BTTS.

Wednesday, October 4

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge
FT · 3–2
Match page →
PHIPhiladelphia UnionvsATLAtlanta United FC

Subaru Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–1
Match page →
MTLCF MontréalvsHOUHouston Dynamo FC

Stade Saputo · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–2
Match page →
NENew England RevolutionvsCLBColumbus Crew

Gillette Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 3–0
Match page →
CLTCharlotte FCvsTORToronto FC

Bank of America Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–2
Match page →
CINFC CincinnativsRBNYRed Bull New York

TQL Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 0–1
Match page →
NSHNashville SCvsORLOrlando City SC

GEODIS Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 4–1
Match page →
CHIChicago Fire FCvsMIAInter Miami CF

Soldier Field · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 3–0
Match page →
ATXAustin FCvsDCD.C. United

Q2 Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 2–1
Match page →
SEASeattle Sounders FCvsLALA Galaxy

Lumen Field · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 3–0
Match page →
VANVancouver WhitecapsvsSTLSt. Louis CITY SC

BC Place · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 5–1
Match page →
LAFCLAFCvsMINMinnesota United FC

BMO Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).