MLS Match Board — Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Every MLS match on Wednesday, July 16, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Wednesday, July 16

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 2–1

Philadelphia Unionvs MTL

CF Montréal

Subaru Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 2–1

Charlotte FCvs

D.C. United

Bank of America Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 3–0

FC Cincinnativs MIA

Inter Miami CF

TQL Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 2–2

Atlanta United FCvs CHI

Chicago Fire FC

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 5–3

Red Bull New Yorkvs

New England Revolution

Sports Illustrated Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–2

Orlando City SCvs NYC

New York City FC

Inter&Co Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 0–1

Minnesota United FCvs LAFC

LAFC

Allianz Field · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 0–3

Houston Dynamo FCvs VAN

Vancouver Whitecaps

Shell Energy Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 3–0

Nashville SCvs CLB

Columbus Crew

GEODIS Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 3–3

Seattle Sounders FCvs COL

Colorado Rapids

Lumen Field · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 2–2

San Jose Earthquakesvs DAL

FC Dallas

PayPal Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–2

LA Galaxyvs ATX

Austin FC

Dignity Health Sports Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 0–1

San Diego FCvs TOR

Toronto FC

Snapdragon Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 0–1

Portland Timbersvs RSL

Real Salt Lake

Providence Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).