MLS Match Board — Saturday, February 21, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, February 21, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, February 21, 2026 · how the model graded

ML8-5+1.7u

Over 2.58-5−0.5u

BTTS7-6—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, February 21

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 1–1

xG1.9–1.5

STLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME✗48%1.9xG+109fair+153mktModel lean+8.3%

DRWDraw24%—xG+317fair+278mkt-2.5%

CLTCharlotte FCAWAY28%1.5xG+255fair+194mkt-5.9%

O2.5 66% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 66% ✓

FT · 2–0

xG1.6–1.3

CINFC CincinnatiHOME✓44%1.6xG+127fair+108mkt-4.1%

DRWDraw27%—xG+277fair+287mkt+0.7%

ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY30%1.3xG+239fair+282mkt+3.3%

O2.5 56% · mkt 56% ✗BTTS 60% ✗

FT · 1–2

xG2.0–1.3

ORLOrlando City SCHOME✗52%2.0xG-107fair-106mkt+0.4%

DRWDraw24%—xG+321fair+299mkt-1.3%

RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY24%1.3xG+308fair+325mkt+0.9%

O2.5 64% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 64% ✓

FT · 1–0

xG2.3–1.1

VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✓64%2.3xG-181fair-217mkt-4.1%

DRWDraw20%—xG+389fair+447mkt+2.2%

RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY15%1.1xG+558fair+655mkt+1.9%

O2.5 65% ✗BTTS 59% ✗

FT · 1–0

xG1.3–1.6

DCD.C. UnitedHOME31%1.3xG+219fair+241mkt+2.0%

DRWDraw27%—xG+270fair+252mkt-1.4%

PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY✗42%1.6xG+140fair+136mkt-0.7%

O2.5 55% · mkt 46% ✗BTTS 59% ✗

FT · 2–2

xG1.5–1.4

ATXAustin FCHOME✗39%1.5xG+156fair+141mkt-2.4%

DRWDraw27%—xG+268fair+253mkt-1.2%

MINMinnesota United FCAWAY34%1.4xG+196fair+231mkt+3.6%

O2.5 55% · mkt 50% ✓BTTS 59% ✓

FT · 4–1

xG2.1–1.1

NSHNashville SCHOME✓58%2.1xG-135fair-164mkt-4.6%

DRWDraw23%—xG+338fair+381mkt+2.0%

NENew England RevolutionAWAY20%1.1xG+409fair+486mkt+2.6%

O2.5 62% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 61% ✓

FT · 2–1

xG1.6–1.5

HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME✓40%1.6xG+148fair+146mkt-0.4%

DRWDraw26%—xG+289fair+274mkt-1.0%

CHIChicago Fire FCAWAY34%1.5xG+194fair+208mkt+1.6%

O2.5 61% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 64% ✓

FT · 3–2

xG1.5–1.1

DALFC DallasHOME✓45%1.5xG+124fair+112mkt-2.4%

DRWDraw28%—xG+257fair+284mkt+1.9%

TORToronto FCAWAY27%1.1xG+266fair+274mkt+0.6%

O2.5 49% · mkt 54% ✗BTTS 54% ✓

FT · 3–0

xG2.0–1.6

LAFCLAFCHOME✓48%2.0xG+110fair+106mkt-0.8%

DRWDraw23%—xG+331fair+318mkt-0.8%

MIAInter Miami CFAWAY29%1.6xG+244fair+263mkt+1.6%

O2.5 69% ✓BTTS 69% ✗

FT · 5–0

xG2.0–1.2

SDSan Diego FCHOME✓54%2.0xG-116fair-175mkt-9.9%

DRWDraw24%—xG+318fair+392mkt+3.6%

MTLCF MontréalAWAY22%1.2xG+347fair+525mktModel lean+6.4%

O2.5 61% ✓BTTS 61% ✗

FT · 3–2

xG1.5–1.5

PORPortland TimbersHOME36%1.5xG+181fair+188mkt+0.9%

DRWDraw26%—xG+280fair+288mkt+0.5%

CLBColumbus CrewAWAY✗38%1.5xG+163fair+154mkt-1.4%

O2.5 59% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 62% ✓

FT · 3–0

xG2.3–1.3

SJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME✓60%2.3xG-148fair-121mktModel lean+5.0%

DRWDraw21%—xG+376fair+352mkt-1.1%

SKCSporting Kansas CityAWAY19%1.3xG+418fair+331mkt-3.9%

O2.5 69% ✓BTTS 66% ✗

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).