MLS Match Board — Sunday, February 22, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, February 22, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, February 22, 2026 · how the model graded

ML1-1−0.6u

Over 2.50-2−1.0u

BTTS1-1—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Sunday, February 22

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 1–1

xG1.7–1.4

LALA GalaxyHOME✗43%1.7xG+131fair+138mkt+1.3%

DRWDraw26%—xG+284fair+286mkt+0.2%

NYCNew York City FCAWAY31%1.4xG+226fair+211mkt-1.5%

O2.5 58% · mkt 55% ✗BTTS 62% ✓

FT · 2–0

xG2.2–1.3

SEASeattle Sounders FCHOME✓58%2.2xG-137fair-227mkt-11.6%

DRWDraw22%—xG+360fair+453mkt+3.6%

COLColorado RapidsAWAY20%1.3xG+391fair+706mktModel lean+8.0%

O2.5 68% ✗BTTS 65% ✗

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).