MLS Match Board — Sunday, March 1, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, March 1, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, March 1, 2026 · how the model graded

ML2-2−0.5u

Over 2.52-2+0.0u

BTTS2-2—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Sunday, March 1

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 1–0

xG1.6–1.2

ATXAustin FCHOME✓45%1.6xG+120fair+101mkt-4.3%

DRWDraw27%—xG+269fair+272mkt+0.2%

DCD.C. UnitedAWAY28%1.2xG+263fair+327mktModel lean+4.1%

O2.5 53% · mkt 49% ✗BTTS 57% ✗

FT · 1–2

xG1.7–1.1

PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME✗49%1.7xG+106fair+133mktModel lean+5.7%

DRWDraw27%—xG+277fair+249mkt-2.1%

NYCNew York City FCAWAY25%1.1xG+303fair+251mkt-3.7%

O2.5 53% · mkt 48% ✓BTTS 56% ✓

FT · 2–4

xG2.0–2.0

ORLOrlando City SCHOME✗39%2.0xG+157fair+301mktModel lean+14.0%

DRWDraw22%—xG+345fair+337mkt-0.4%

MIAInter Miami CFAWAY39%2.0xG+159fair-109mkt-13.5%

O2.5 75% ✓BTTS 75% ✓

FT · 2–0

xG2.0–1.4

SDSan Diego FCHOME✓52%2.0xG-110fair-163mkt-9.6%

DRWDraw23%—xG+330fair+379mkt+2.4%

STLSt. Louis CITY SCAWAY24%1.4xG+309fair+479mktModel lean+7.2%

O2.5 66% ✗BTTS 66% ✗

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).