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MLS Match Board — Saturday, February 28, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, February 28, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, February 28, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 259 of 450 on Over 2.5, 212 of 450 on BTTS.

Saturday, February 28

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 3–0
xG2.1–1.2
Match page →
CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✓57%2.1xG-131fair-136mkt-0.9%
Draw23%—xG+339fair+337mkt-0.1%
MTLCF MontréalAWAY20%1.2xG+389fair+412mkt+0.9%
O2.5 64% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 62% ✗1H O1.5 43% ✓
FT · 1–0
xG2.0–1.2
Match page →
RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME✓55%2.0xG-120fair-121mkt-0.3%
Draw24%—xG+324fair+316mkt-0.4%
NENew England RevolutionAWAY22%1.2xG+358fair+378mkt+0.9%
O2.5 62% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 62% ✗1H O1.5 42% ✓
FT · 2–0
xG1.8–1.4
Match page →
COLColorado RapidsHOME✓47%1.8xG+111fair+129mkt+3.7%
Draw25%—xG+305fair+293mkt-0.7%
PORPortland TimbersAWAY28%1.4xG+259fair+224mkt-3.0%
O2.5 63% · mkt 61% ✗BTTS 64% ✗1H O1.5 43% ✓
FT · 1–0
xG1.8–1.3
Match page →
MINMinnesota United FCHOME✓48%1.8xG+108fair+127mkt+4.0%
Draw26%—xG+290fair+279mkt-0.8%
CINFC CincinnatiAWAY26%1.3xG+279fair+239mkt-3.2%
O2.5 58% · mkt 53% ✗BTTS 60% ✗1H O1.5 39% ✓
FT · 2–0
xG2.0–1.2
Match page →
SJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME✓54%2.0xG-120fair+113mktModel lean+7.4%
Draw24%—xG+325fair+283mkt-2.6%
ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY22%1.2xG+355fair+278mkt-4.5%
O2.5 62% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 62% ✗1H O1.5 42% ✓
FT · 2–1
xG1.4–1.5
Match page →
RSLReal Salt LakeHOME33%1.4xG+200fair+235mkt+3.5%
Draw27%—xG+266fair+263mkt-0.2%
SEASeattle Sounders FCAWAY✗39%1.5xG+154fair+134mkt-3.3%
O2.5 54% · mkt 50% ✓BTTS 59% ✓1H O1.5 37% ✓
FT · 0–2
xG1.3–1.6
Match page →
HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME31%1.3xG+222fair+299mktModel lean+6.0%
Draw27%—xG+270fair+294mkt+1.6%
LAFCLAFCAWAY✓42%1.6xG+138fair+103mkt-7.3%
O2.5 55% · mkt 54% ✗BTTS 59% ✗1H O1.5 37% ✓
FT · 0–0
xG1.5–1.6
Match page →
DALFC DallasHOME36%1.5xG+181fair+209mkt+3.2%
Draw26%—xG+289fair+273mkt-1.1%
NSHNashville SCAWAY✗39%1.6xG+158fair+145mkt-2.1%
O2.5 61% · mkt 55% ✗BTTS 64% ✗1H O1.5 42% ✓
FT · 2–2
xG1.5–1.8
Match page →
SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME31%1.5xG+226fair+373mktModel lean+9.6%
Draw25%—xG+300fair+355mkt+3.0%
CLBColumbus CrewAWAY✗44%1.8xG+126fair-131mkt-12.5%
O2.5 63% ✓BTTS 65% ✓1H O1.5 43% ✓
FT · 3–0
xG2.0–0.9
Match page →
VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✓63%2.0xG-167fair-225mkt-6.7%
Draw22%—xG+346fair+446mktModel lean+4.1%
TORToronto FCAWAY15%0.9xG+568fair+706mkt+2.6%
O2.5 57% ✓BTTS 53% ✗1H O1.5 38% ✗
FT · 3–0
xG1.8–1.3
Match page →
LALA GalaxyHOME✓48%1.8xG+110fair+123mkt+2.8%
Draw25%—xG+299fair+284mkt-1.0%
CLTCharlotte FCAWAY27%1.3xG+264fair+241mkt-1.9%
O2.5 61% · mkt 58% ✓BTTS 63% ✗1H O1.5 41% ✗

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).