MLS Match Board — Saturday, February 28, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, February 28, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, February 28, 2026 · how the model graded

ML8-3+4.4u

Over 2.55-6−3.8u

BTTS2-9—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, February 28

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 3–0

xG2.1–1.2

CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✓57%2.1xG-131fair-136mkt-0.9%

DRWDraw23%—xG+339fair+337mkt-0.1%

MTLCF MontréalAWAY20%1.2xG+389fair+412mkt+0.9%

O2.5 64% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 62% ✗

FT · 1–0

xG2.0–1.2

RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME✓55%2.0xG-120fair-121mkt-0.3%

DRWDraw24%—xG+324fair+316mkt-0.4%

NENew England RevolutionAWAY22%1.2xG+358fair+378mkt+0.9%

O2.5 62% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 62% ✗

FT · 2–0

xG1.8–1.4

COLColorado RapidsHOME✓47%1.8xG+111fair+129mkt+3.7%

DRWDraw25%—xG+305fair+293mkt-0.7%

PORPortland TimbersAWAY28%1.4xG+259fair+224mkt-3.0%

O2.5 63% · mkt 61% ✗BTTS 64% ✗

FT · 1–0

xG1.8–1.3

MINMinnesota United FCHOME✓48%1.8xG+108fair+127mkt+4.0%

DRWDraw26%—xG+290fair+279mkt-0.8%

CINFC CincinnatiAWAY26%1.3xG+279fair+239mkt-3.2%

O2.5 58% · mkt 53% ✗BTTS 60% ✗

FT · 2–0

xG2.0–1.2

SJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME✓54%2.0xG-120fair+113mktModel lean+7.4%

DRWDraw24%—xG+325fair+283mkt-2.6%

ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY22%1.2xG+355fair+278mkt-4.5%

O2.5 62% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 62% ✗

FT · 2–1

xG1.4–1.5

RSLReal Salt LakeHOME33%1.4xG+200fair+235mkt+3.5%

DRWDraw27%—xG+266fair+263mkt-0.2%

SEASeattle Sounders FCAWAY✗39%1.5xG+154fair+134mkt-3.3%

O2.5 54% · mkt 50% ✓BTTS 59% ✓

FT · 0–2

xG1.3–1.6

HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME31%1.3xG+222fair+299mktModel lean+6.0%

DRWDraw27%—xG+270fair+294mkt+1.6%

LAFCLAFCAWAY✓42%1.6xG+138fair+103mkt-7.3%

O2.5 55% · mkt 54% ✗BTTS 59% ✗

FT · 2–2

xG1.5–1.8

SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME31%1.5xG+226fair+373mktModel lean+9.6%

DRWDraw25%—xG+300fair+355mkt+3.0%

CLBColumbus CrewAWAY✗44%1.8xG+126fair-131mkt-12.5%

O2.5 63% ✓BTTS 65% ✓

FT · 0–0

xG1.5–1.6

DALFC DallasHOME36%1.5xG+181fair+209mkt+3.2%

DRWDraw26%—xG+289fair+273mkt-1.1%

NSHNashville SCAWAY✗39%1.6xG+158fair+145mkt-2.1%

O2.5 61% · mkt 55% ✗BTTS 64% ✗

FT · 3–0

xG2.0–0.9

VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✓63%2.0xG-167fair-225mkt-6.7%

DRWDraw22%—xG+346fair+446mktModel lean+4.1%

TORToronto FCAWAY15%0.9xG+568fair+706mkt+2.6%

O2.5 57% ✓BTTS 53% ✗

FT · 3–0

xG1.8–1.3

LALA GalaxyHOME✓48%1.8xG+110fair+123mkt+2.8%

DRWDraw25%—xG+299fair+284mkt-1.0%

CLTCharlotte FCAWAY27%1.3xG+264fair+241mkt-1.9%

O2.5 61% · mkt 58% ✓BTTS 63% ✗

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).