MLS Match Board — Saturday, April 18, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, April 18, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, April 18, 2026 · how the model graded

ML5-8−2.5u

Over 2.58-5+1.0u

BTTS9-4—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, April 18

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 3–3

xG1.5–1.1

TORToronto FCHOME✗45%1.5xG+121fair+107mkt-3.2%

DRWDraw29%—xG+250fair+260mkt+0.8%

ATXAustin FCAWAY26%1.1xG+280fair+320mkt+2.5%

O2.5 47% · mkt 49% ✗BTTS 52% ✓

FT · 4–1

xG1.8–1.5

MTLCF MontréalHOME✓44%1.8xG+127fair+197mktModel lean+10.4%

DRWDraw25%—xG+301fair+280mkt-1.4%

RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY31%1.5xG+222fair+150mkt-9.0%

O2.5 63% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 65% ✓

FT · 2–3

xG2.0–1.9

COLColorado RapidsHOME✗41%2.0xG+145fair+229mktModel lean+10.3%

DRWDraw23%—xG+340fair+309mkt-1.7%

MIAInter Miami CFAWAY37%1.9xG+174fair+123mkt-8.4%

O2.5 74% ✓BTTS 74% ✓

FT · 2–1

xG1.4–1.4

NENew England RevolutionHOME35%1.4xG+184fair+187mkt+0.3%

DRWDraw27%—xG+264fair+253mkt-0.9%

CLBColumbus CrewAWAY✗37%1.4xG+168fair+171mkt+0.5%

O2.5 54% · mkt 52% ✓BTTS 59% ✓

FT · 0–0

xG1.8–1.0

PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME✗55%1.8xG-124fair-115mkt+1.8%

DRWDraw25%—xG+297fair+270mkt-1.8%

DCD.C. UnitedAWAY19%1.0xG+414fair+417mkt+0.1%

O2.5 53% · mkt 46% ✗BTTS 54% ✗

FT · 0–1

xG1.8–1.5

ORLOrlando City SCHOME✗43%1.8xG+131fair+181mktModel lean+7.7%

DRWDraw25%—xG+304fair+308mkt+0.3%

HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY32%1.5xG+213fair+150mkt-8.1%

O2.5 64% ✗BTTS 66% ✗

FT · 1–2

xG1.8–1.2

NYCNew York City FCHOME✗49%1.8xG+105fair-112mkt-4.2%

DRWDraw26%—xG+290fair+295mkt+0.4%

CLTCharlotte FCAWAY26%1.2xG+290fair+355mkt+3.7%

O2.5 57% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 60% ✓

FT · 3–3

xG1.6–1.6

CINFC CincinnatiHOME37%1.6xG+171fair+160mkt-1.6%

DRWDraw25%—xG+294fair+276mkt-1.3%

CHIChicago Fire FCAWAY✗38%1.6xG+165fair+188mkt+2.9%

O2.5 63% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 65% ✓

FT · 0–2

xG1.4–1.6

ATLAtlanta United FCHOME32%1.4xG+213fair+236mkt+2.2%

DRWDraw27%—xG+272fair+265mkt-0.5%

NSHNashville SCAWAY✓41%1.6xG+143fair+133mkt-1.7%

O2.5 56% · mkt 53% ✗BTTS 60% ✗

FT · 2–2

xG1.8–1.3

DALFC DallasHOME✗48%1.8xG+107fair+121mkt+3.0%

DRWDraw25%—xG+303fair+279mkt-1.6%

LALA GalaxyAWAY27%1.3xG+271fair+257mkt-1.1%

O2.5 61% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 63% ✓

FT · 2–0

xG2.0–1.3

MINMinnesota United FCHOME✓54%2.0xG-116fair-119mkt-0.7%

DRWDraw23%—xG+327fair+324mkt-0.1%

PORPortland TimbersAWAY23%1.3xG+335fair+351mkt+0.8%

O2.5 64% ✗BTTS 63% ✗

FT · 4–1

xG1.8–1.1

SEASeattle Sounders FCHOME✓51%1.8xG-103fair-120mkt-3.8%

DRWDraw26%—xG+291fair+290mkt+0.0%

STLSt. Louis CITY SCAWAY24%1.1xG+324fair+404mkt+3.7%

O2.5 56% · mkt 58% ✓BTTS 58% ✓

FT · 4–2

xG2.0–1.4

RSLReal Salt LakeHOME✓49%2.0xG+104fair-153mkt-11.6%

DRWDraw24%—xG+319fair+387mkt+3.3%

SDSan Diego FCAWAY27%1.4xG+267fair+436mktModel lean+8.6%

O2.5 66% ✓BTTS 66% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).