MLS Match Board — Friday, April 17, 2026

Every MLS match on Friday, April 17, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Friday, April 17, 2026 · how the model graded

ML1-0+0.1u

Over 2.51-0—

BTTS0-1—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Friday, April 17

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 3–0

xG3.1–0.8

VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✓82%3.1xG-444fair-594mkt-4.0%

DRWDraw12%—xG+713fair+968mkt+2.9%

SKCSporting Kansas CityAWAY6%0.8xG+1544fair+1834mkt+0.9%

O2.5 75% ✓BTTS 54% ✗

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).