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MLS Match Board — Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Every MLS match on Wednesday, April 22, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Wednesday, April 22, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 449 of 450 on ML, 258 of 450 on Over 2.5, 211 of 450 on BTTS.

Wednesday, April 22

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 4–4
xG2.0–1.2
Match page →
NYCNew York City FCHOME✗54%2.0xG-115fair-103mkt+2.8%
Draw24%—xG+319fair+315mkt-0.2%
CINFC CincinnatiAWAY23%1.2xG+342fair+297mkt-2.6%
O2.5 62% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 62% ✓1H O1.5 42% ✗
FT · 3–3
xG1.4–1.2
Match page →
TORToronto FCHOME✗39%1.4xG+154fair+185mktModel lean+4.4%
Draw28%—xG+251fair+252mkt+0.1%
PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY32%1.2xG+211fair+175mkt-4.3%
O2.5 49% · mkt 51% ✗BTTS 55% ✓1H O1.5 34% ✓
FT · 4–4
xG1.7–1.2
Match page →
RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME✗48%1.7xG+108fair-102mkt-2.6%
Draw26%—xG+282fair+298mkt+1.0%
DCD.C. UnitedAWAY26%1.2xG+287fair+318mkt+1.9%
O2.5 56% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 58% ✓1H O1.5 38% ✗
FT · 4–1
xG1.7–1.6
Match page →
ORLOrlando City SCHOME✓40%1.7xG+149fair+219mktModel lean+8.9%
Draw25%—xG+299fair+304mkt+0.3%
CLTCharlotte FCAWAY35%1.6xG+188fair+127mkt-9.3%
O2.5 64% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 66% ✓1H O1.5 44% ✗
FT · 1–2
xG1.7–1.2
Match page →
ATLAtlanta United FCHOME✗46%1.7xG+118fair+150mktModel lean+5.9%
Draw27%—xG+277fair+260mkt-1.2%
NENew England RevolutionAWAY28%1.2xG+263fair+210mkt-4.7%
O2.5 55% · mkt 52% ✓BTTS 59% ✓1H O1.5 37% ✓
FT · 1–0
xG1.8–1.4
Match page →
HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME✓46%1.8xG+116fair+106mkt-2.2%
Draw25%—xG+307fair+319mkt+0.7%
SDSan Diego FCAWAY29%1.4xG+243fair+263mkt+1.5%
O2.5 64% ✗BTTS 65% ✗1H O1.5 44% ✓
FT · 0–1
xG1.9–1.3
Match page →
DALFC DallasHOME✗50%1.9xG+102fair+115mkt+3.1%
Draw24%—xG+311fair+297mkt-0.9%
MINMinnesota United FCAWAY26%1.3xG+283fair+257mkt-1.9%
O2.5 63% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 64% ✗1H O1.5 43% ✓
FT · 0–2
xG1.7–1.7
Match page →
RSLReal Salt LakeHOME✗39%1.7xG+160fair+120mkt-7.0%
Draw24%—xG+311fair+329mkt+1.0%
MIAInter Miami CFAWAY37%1.7xG+169fair+225mktModel lean+6.4%
O2.5 67% ✗BTTS 69% ✗1H O1.5 46% ✓
FT · 2–1
xG1.7–1.2
Match page →
CLBColumbus CrewHOME✓46%1.7xG+115fair-130mkt-10.1%
Draw26%—xG+280fair+324mkt+2.7%
LALA GalaxyAWAY27%1.2xG+267fair+397mktModel lean+7.1%
O2.5 56% ✓BTTS 59% ✓1H O1.5 38% ✓
FT · 0–0
xG2.3–1.3
Match page →
LAFCLAFCHOME✗59%2.3xG-146fair-191mkt-6.3%
Draw21%—xG+371fair+419mkt+2.0%
COLColorado RapidsAWAY19%1.3xG+414fair+560mktModel lean+4.3%
O2.5 69% ✗BTTS 65% ✗1H O1.5 47% ✓
FT · 5–1
xG2.4–1.0
Match page →
SJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME✓66%2.4xG-197fair-194mkt+0.3%
Draw20%—xG+409fair+405mkt-0.1%
ATXAustin FCAWAY14%1.0xG+612fair+593mkt-0.4%
O2.5 66% · mkt 61% ✓BTTS 59% ✓1H O1.5 45% ✓

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).