MLS Match Board — Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Every MLS match on Wednesday, April 22, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Wednesday, April 22, 2026 · how the model graded

ML4-7−2.6u

Over 2.56-5+1.3u

BTTS7-4—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Wednesday, April 22

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 4–4

xG1.7–1.2

RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME✗48%1.7xG+108fair-102mkt-2.6%

DRWDraw26%—xG+282fair+298mkt+1.0%

DCD.C. UnitedAWAY26%1.2xG+287fair+318mkt+1.9%

O2.5 56% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 58% ✓

FT · 4–1

xG1.7–1.6

ORLOrlando City SCHOME✓40%1.7xG+149fair+219mktModel lean+8.9%

DRWDraw25%—xG+299fair+304mkt+0.3%

CLTCharlotte FCAWAY35%1.6xG+188fair+127mkt-9.3%

O2.5 64% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 66% ✓

FT · 4–4

xG2.0–1.2

NYCNew York City FCHOME✗54%2.0xG-115fair-103mkt+2.8%

DRWDraw24%—xG+319fair+315mkt-0.2%

CINFC CincinnatiAWAY23%1.2xG+342fair+297mkt-2.6%

O2.5 62% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 62% ✓

FT · 3–3

xG1.4–1.2

TORToronto FCHOME✗39%1.4xG+154fair+185mktModel lean+4.4%

DRWDraw28%—xG+251fair+252mkt+0.1%

PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY32%1.2xG+211fair+175mkt-4.3%

O2.5 49% · mkt 51% ✗BTTS 55% ✓

FT · 1–2

xG1.7–1.2

ATLAtlanta United FCHOME✗46%1.7xG+118fair+150mktModel lean+5.9%

DRWDraw27%—xG+277fair+260mkt-1.2%

NENew England RevolutionAWAY28%1.2xG+263fair+210mkt-4.7%

O2.5 55% · mkt 52% ✓BTTS 59% ✓

FT · 1–0

xG1.8–1.4

HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME✓46%1.8xG+116fair+106mkt-2.2%

DRWDraw25%—xG+307fair+319mkt+0.7%

SDSan Diego FCAWAY29%1.4xG+243fair+263mkt+1.5%

O2.5 64% ✗BTTS 65% ✗

FT · 0–1

xG1.9–1.3

DALFC DallasHOME✗50%1.9xG+102fair+115mkt+3.1%

DRWDraw24%—xG+311fair+297mkt-0.9%

MINMinnesota United FCAWAY26%1.3xG+283fair+257mkt-1.9%

O2.5 63% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 64% ✗

FT · 0–2

xG1.7–1.7

RSLReal Salt LakeHOME✗39%1.7xG+160fair+120mkt-7.0%

DRWDraw24%—xG+311fair+329mkt+1.0%

MIAInter Miami CFAWAY37%1.7xG+169fair+225mktModel lean+6.4%

O2.5 67% ✗BTTS 69% ✗

FT · 2–1

xG1.7–1.2

CLBColumbus CrewHOME✓46%1.7xG+115fair-130mkt-10.1%

DRWDraw26%—xG+280fair+324mkt+2.7%

LALA GalaxyAWAY27%1.2xG+267fair+397mktModel lean+7.1%

O2.5 56% ✓BTTS 59% ✓

FT · 0–0

xG2.3–1.3

LAFCLAFCHOME✗59%2.3xG-146fair-191mkt-6.3%

DRWDraw21%—xG+371fair+419mkt+2.0%

COLColorado RapidsAWAY19%1.3xG+414fair+560mktModel lean+4.3%

O2.5 69% ✗BTTS 65% ✗

FT · 5–1

xG2.4–1.0

SJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME✓66%2.4xG-197fair-194mkt+0.3%

DRWDraw20%—xG+409fair+405mkt-0.1%

ATXAustin FCAWAY14%1.0xG+612fair+593mkt-0.4%

O2.5 66% · mkt 61% ✓BTTS 59% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).