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MLS Match Board — Saturday, April 25, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, April 25, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, April 25, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 449 of 450 on ML, 258 of 450 on Over 2.5, 211 of 450 on BTTS.

Saturday, April 25

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 1–2
xG1.6–1.1
Match page →
TORToronto FCHOME✗48%1.6xG+108fair-101mkt-2.3%
Draw27%—xG+270fair+294mkt+1.7%
ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY25%1.1xG+300fair+310mkt+0.6%
O2.5 52% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 55% ✓1H O1.5 35% ✓
FT · 1–0
xG1.5–1.5
Match page →
MTLCF MontréalHOME✓38%1.5xG+162fair+229mktModel lean+7.8%
Draw27%—xG+276fair+262mkt-1.0%
NYCNew York City FCAWAY35%1.5xG+184fair+139mkt-6.6%
O2.5 57% · mkt 52% ✗BTTS 61% ✗1H O1.5 39% ✓
FT · 0–1
xG1.5–1.5
Match page →
MINMinnesota United FCHOME35%1.5xG+186fair+152mkt-4.7%
Draw27%—xG+276fair+273mkt-0.3%
LAFCLAFCAWAY✓38%1.5xG+160fair+199mktModel lean+5.0%
O2.5 57% · mkt 54% ✗BTTS 61% ✗1H O1.5 39% ✓
FT · 1–1
xG2.5–1.1
Match page →
MIAInter Miami CFHOME✗68%2.5xG-209fair-238mkt-2.8%
Draw19%—xG+433fair+485mkt+1.7%
NENew England RevolutionAWAY14%1.1xG+634fair+697mkt+1.1%
O2.5 69% ✗BTTS 61% ✓1H O1.5 47% ✓
FT · 3–2
xG1.8–1.3
Match page →
DCD.C. UnitedHOME✓48%1.8xG+110fair-105mkt-3.8%
Draw25%—xG+295fair+286mkt-0.6%
ORLOrlando City SCAWAY27%1.3xG+268fair+345mktModel lean+4.7%
O2.5 60% · mkt 52% ✓BTTS 62% ✓1H O1.5 41% ✓
FT · 2–0
xG2.3–1.5
Match page →
CINFC CincinnatiHOME✓54%2.3xG-117fair-125mkt-1.6%
Draw22%—xG+364fair+376mkt+0.5%
RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY24%1.5xG+309fair+330mkt+1.2%
O2.5 73% ✗BTTS 71% ✗1H O1.5 51% ✓
FT · 2–0
xG1.6–1.2
Match page →
CLBColumbus CrewHOME✓45%1.6xG+122fair+101mkt-4.7%
Draw27%—xG+264fair+287mkt+1.6%
PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY27%1.2xG+264fair+311mkt+3.2%
O2.5 52% · mkt 54% ✗BTTS 56% ✗1H O1.5 35% ✗
FT · 2–0
xG1.6–1.4
Match page →
ATXAustin FCHOME✓40%1.6xG+152fair+212mktModel lean+7.6%
Draw26%—xG+279fair+263mkt-1.1%
HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY34%1.4xG+195fair+148mkt-6.5%
O2.5 58% · mkt 53% ✗BTTS 62% ✗1H O1.5 39% ✗
FT · 4–2
xG2.0–1.1
Match page →
NSHNashville SCHOME✓57%2.0xG-131fair-146mkt-2.7%
Draw24%—xG+326fair+331mkt+0.3%
CLTCharlotte FCAWAY20%1.1xG+403fair+468mkt+2.2%
O2.5 60% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 59% ✓1H O1.5 41% ✗
FT · 5–0
xG2.6–1.1
Match page →
CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✓69%2.6xG-218fair-285mkt-5.4%
Draw18%—xG+451fair+548mkt+2.7%
SKCSporting Kansas CityAWAY13%1.1xG+654fair+861mkt+2.9%
O2.5 71% ✓BTTS 62% ✗1H O1.5 49% ✓
FT · 2–3
xG1.6–1.7
Match page →
STLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME34%1.6xG+196fair+133mkt-9.1%
Draw25%—xG+299fair+313mkt+0.8%
SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY✓41%1.7xG+143fair+204mktModel lean+8.3%
O2.5 64% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 66% ✓1H O1.5 44% ✓
FT · 1–2
xG2.1–1.3
Match page →
SDSan Diego FCHOME✗54%2.1xG-118fair-123mkt-1.1%
Draw23%—xG+337fair+345mkt+0.4%
PORPortland TimbersAWAY23%1.3xG+334fair+346mkt+0.7%
O2.5 66% ✓BTTS 65% ✓1H O1.5 45% ✗
FT · 2–1
xG1.8–1.1
Match page →
SEASeattle Sounders FCHOME✓52%1.8xG-110fair-161mkt-9.3%
Draw25%—xG+294fair+354mkt+3.4%
DALFC DallasAWAY22%1.1xG+351fair+527mktModel lean+6.2%
O2.5 55% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 57% ✓1H O1.5 38% ✗
FT · 3–1
xG2.4–1.1
Match page →
VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✓66%2.4xG-191fair-242mkt-5.1%
Draw19%—xG+413fair+499mkt+2.8%
COLColorado RapidsAWAY15%1.1xG+573fair+694mkt+2.3%
O2.5 68% ✓BTTS 62% ✓1H O1.5 47% ✗

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).