MLS Match Board — Saturday, April 25, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, April 25, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, April 25, 2026 · how the model graded

ML11-3+9.9u

Over 2.58-6−0.5u

BTTS8-6—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, April 25

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 1–2

xG1.6–1.1

TORToronto FCHOME✗48%1.6xG+108fair-101mkt-2.3%

DRWDraw27%—xG+270fair+294mkt+1.7%

ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY25%1.1xG+300fair+310mkt+0.6%

O2.5 52% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 55% ✓

FT · 1–0

xG1.5–1.5

MTLCF MontréalHOME✓38%1.5xG+162fair+229mktModel lean+7.8%

DRWDraw27%—xG+276fair+262mkt-1.0%

NYCNew York City FCAWAY35%1.5xG+184fair+139mkt-6.6%

O2.5 57% · mkt 52% ✗BTTS 61% ✗

FT · 0–1

xG1.5–1.5

MINMinnesota United FCHOME35%1.5xG+186fair+152mkt-4.7%

DRWDraw27%—xG+276fair+273mkt-0.3%

LAFCLAFCAWAY✓38%1.5xG+160fair+199mktModel lean+5.0%

O2.5 57% · mkt 54% ✗BTTS 61% ✗

FT · 3–2

xG1.8–1.3

DCD.C. UnitedHOME✓48%1.8xG+110fair-105mkt-3.8%

DRWDraw25%—xG+295fair+286mkt-0.6%

ORLOrlando City SCAWAY27%1.3xG+268fair+345mktModel lean+4.7%

O2.5 60% · mkt 52% ✓BTTS 62% ✓

FT · 2–0

xG2.3–1.5

CINFC CincinnatiHOME✓54%2.3xG-117fair-125mkt-1.6%

DRWDraw22%—xG+364fair+376mkt+0.5%

RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY24%1.5xG+309fair+330mkt+1.2%

O2.5 73% ✗BTTS 71% ✗

FT · 2–0

xG1.6–1.2

CLBColumbus CrewHOME✓45%1.6xG+122fair+101mkt-4.7%

DRWDraw27%—xG+264fair+287mkt+1.6%

PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY27%1.2xG+264fair+311mkt+3.2%

O2.5 52% · mkt 54% ✗BTTS 56% ✗

FT · 1–1

xG2.5–1.1

MIAInter Miami CFHOME✗68%2.5xG-209fair-238mkt-2.8%

DRWDraw19%—xG+433fair+485mkt+1.7%

NENew England RevolutionAWAY14%1.1xG+634fair+697mkt+1.1%

O2.5 69% ✗BTTS 61% ✓

FT · 5–0

xG2.6–1.1

CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✓69%2.6xG-218fair-285mkt-5.4%

DRWDraw18%—xG+451fair+548mkt+2.7%

SKCSporting Kansas CityAWAY13%1.1xG+654fair+861mkt+2.9%

O2.5 71% ✓BTTS 62% ✗

FT · 2–0

xG1.6–1.4

ATXAustin FCHOME✓40%1.6xG+152fair+212mktModel lean+7.6%

DRWDraw26%—xG+279fair+263mkt-1.1%

HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY34%1.4xG+195fair+148mkt-6.5%

O2.5 58% · mkt 53% ✗BTTS 62% ✗

FT · 4–2

xG2.0–1.1

NSHNashville SCHOME✓57%2.0xG-131fair-146mkt-2.7%

DRWDraw24%—xG+326fair+331mkt+0.3%

CLTCharlotte FCAWAY20%1.1xG+403fair+468mkt+2.2%

O2.5 60% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 59% ✓

FT · 2–3

xG1.6–1.7

STLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME34%1.6xG+196fair+133mkt-9.1%

DRWDraw25%—xG+299fair+313mkt+0.8%

SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY✓41%1.7xG+143fair+204mktModel lean+8.3%

O2.5 64% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 66% ✓

FT · 1–2

xG2.1–1.3

SDSan Diego FCHOME✗54%2.1xG-118fair-123mkt-1.1%

DRWDraw23%—xG+337fair+345mkt+0.4%

PORPortland TimbersAWAY23%1.3xG+334fair+346mkt+0.7%

O2.5 66% ✓BTTS 65% ✓

FT · 2–1

xG1.8–1.1

SEASeattle Sounders FCHOME✓52%1.8xG-110fair-161mkt-9.3%

DRWDraw25%—xG+294fair+354mkt+3.4%

DALFC DallasAWAY22%1.1xG+351fair+527mktModel lean+6.2%

O2.5 55% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 57% ✓

FT · 3–1

xG2.4–1.1

VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✓66%2.4xG-191fair-242mkt-5.1%

DRWDraw19%—xG+413fair+499mkt+2.8%

COLColorado RapidsAWAY15%1.1xG+573fair+694mkt+2.3%

O2.5 68% ✓BTTS 62% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).