Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, May 30, 2026)?

Willy Adames (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, May 30, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Saturday, May 30, 2026: Willy Adames (100), Luis Arraez (95), Travis Bazzana (91), Casey Schmitt (82), Jung Hoo Lee (81). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, May 30, 2026?

No — Willy Adames didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .309 against righties this year. Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .275 against righties this year. Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .268 against righties this year. Troy Johnston (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .317 against righties this year. Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .311 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .290 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Dominic Smith (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL). RHP Ryan Feltner has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Willy Adames (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Saturday, May 30, 2026

Every hitter on the Saturday, May 30, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Saturday, May 30, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 63% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 63%

Top 10

7/1070%

season 67%

Full slate

164/27061%

season 56%

Top call Travis Bazzana came through. Willy Adames didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 1–7

DETaway

CWShomeTop matchup65 Final · 4–9

SDaway

WSHhomeTop matchup72 Final · 6–7

KCaway

TEXhomeTop matchup61 Final · 5–6

TORaway

BALhomeTop matchup70 Final · 9–10

MINaway

PIThomeTop matchup67 Final · 14–3

LAAaway

TBhomeTop matchup66 Final · 9–1

BOSaway

CLEhomeTop matchup91 Final · 1–6

MIAaway

NYMhomeTop matchup61 Final · 2–9

MILaway

HOUhomeTop matchup64 Final · 6–1

CHCaway

STLhomeTop matchup74 Final · 5–2

ATLaway

CINhomeTop matchup79 Final · 3–8

SFaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–6

NYYaway

ATHhomeTop matchup66 Final · 1–5

AZaway

SEAhomeTop matchup65 Final · 4–3

PHIaway

LADhomeTop matchup71

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

164 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@BAL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T1
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@STL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #59
3
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsSF· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T3
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsKC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T3
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsCHC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T3
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsMIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T3
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsNYY· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T3
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsMIL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #64
T3
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsKC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #67
T3
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsNYY· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T3
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsPHI· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T3
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsMIA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T3
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@PIT· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T3
Liam HicksC
MIA@NYM· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #148
T3
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@PIT· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T3
Jake MangumCF
PITvsMIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
17
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #3
T17
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T17
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T17
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T17
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@WSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T17
Spencer Horwitz1B
PITvsMIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T17
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T17
Willi Castro2B
COLvsSF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T17
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T17
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@CLE· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T17
Matt Chapman3B
SF@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T17
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATL@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T17
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsMIN· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #62
T17
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@STL· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #66
T17
Ian HappLF
CHC@STL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T17
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsDET· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T17
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T17
Konnor GriffinSS
PITvsMIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T17
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T17
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T17
Drew GilbertCF
SF@COL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T17
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsLAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T17
Carter JensenC
KC@TEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T17
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@PIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T17
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsMIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T17
Luke RaleyRF
SEAvsAZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T17
Jared Young1B
NYMvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T17
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KC@TEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T17
Alex CallLF
LADvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #145
T17
Manny Machado3B
SD@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #147
T17
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWSvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #151
T17
JJ BledayLF
CINvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #152
T17
Donovan Walton2B
LAA@TB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #154
T17
Petey HalpinCF
CLEvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
T17
Mike TroutCF
LAA@TB· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T17
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T17
Edgar QueroC
CWSvsDET· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T17
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B
BOS@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T17
Ryan McMahon3B
NYY@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T17
Oswald Peraza2B
LAA@TB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T17
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@TEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T17
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T17
Jake MeyersCF
HOUvsMIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T17
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #236
T17
Connor WongC
BOS@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #244
T17
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #267
63
Casey SchmittLF
SF@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T63
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsSF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T63
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T63
Andy PagesCF
LADvsPHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T63
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T63
Ben RiceDH
NYY@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T63
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T63
William ContrerasC
MIL@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T63
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T63
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@LAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T63
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T63
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T63
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T63
Matt Olson1B
ATL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T63
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T63
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T63
Eric HaaseC
SF@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T63
Blake DunnCF
CINvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T63
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T63
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsPHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T63
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsKC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T63
Michael Busch1B
CHC@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T63
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T63
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T63
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T63
George SpringerDH
TOR@BAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #57
T63
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #60
T63
Taylor TrammellCF
HOUvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #71
T63
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsKC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T63
Shea LangeliersC
ATHvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T63
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T63
Josh BellDH
MIN@PIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T63
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T63
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T63
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T63
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEAvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T63
Ezequiel TovarSS
COLvsSF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T63
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T63
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T63
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T63
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T63
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T63
Tyler FreemanRF
COLvsSF· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T63
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T63
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T63
Daulton VarshoCF
TOR@BAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T63
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T63
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T63
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T63
Christian YelichDH
MIL@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T63
Sam HaggertyLF
TEXvsKC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T63
Orlando ArciaSS
MIN@PIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T63
Moisés BallesterosDH
CHC@STL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T63
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T63
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T63
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZ@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T63
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@STL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T63
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsSF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #146
T63
Oneil CruzCF
PITvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #149
T63
Leo Jiménez3B
MIA@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #150
T63
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #153
T63
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #158
T63
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
T63
Ty France1B
SD@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T63
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsTOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T63
Wenceel PérezRF
DET@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T63
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T63
Rikuu NishidaRF
CWSvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T63
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T63
Cole Young2B
SEAvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T63
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T63
Will SmithC
LADvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T63
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T63
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T63
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T63
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T63
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T63
Michael HelmanCF
TEXvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T63
Brett SullivanC
COLvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T63
Adrian Del CastilloDH
AZ@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T63
Jackson Holliday2B
BALvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T63
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T63
Jorge MateoSS
ATL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T63
Colt EmersonSS
SEAvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T63
Riley GreeneLF
DET@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T63
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsMIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T63
Jo AdellRF
LAA@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T63
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #235
T63
Christian VázquezC
HOUvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #237
T63
Danny JansenC
TEXvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #238
T63
Mark Vientos1B
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #241
T63
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #247
T63
Colton CowserCF
BALvsTOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #248
T63
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #249
T63
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsSD· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #253
T63
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #255
T63
Nick Loftin3B
KC@TEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #256
T63
Coby Mayo3B
BALvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T63
Sebastián RiveroC
LAA@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #258
T63
Drew MillasC
WSHvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #259
T63
Hayden SengerC
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #260
T63
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, May 30, 2026

Willy Adames (SF) is the top hits matchup on the Saturday, May 30, 2026 board at 100, with Luis Arraez (SF) and Travis Bazzana (CLE) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Willy Adames

Willy Adames (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. The righty is hitting .253 H/PA against righties this year — and .311 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 26% of his trips. And Ryan Feltner has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .067 in 15 career PA against Ryan Feltner, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a hitter's park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Luis Arraez (SF) (95) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: an excellent bat at .291 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Travis Bazzana (CLE) (91) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an excellent bat at .296 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
Casey Schmitt (SF) (82) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .241 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Jung Hoo Lee (SF) (81) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .270 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
Troy Johnston (COL) (79) vs RHP Adrian Houser: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.212), hitter's park.
Michael Harris II (ATL) (79) vs RHP Brady Singer: a strong bat at .264 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.350).
TJ Rumfield (COL) (79) vs RHP Adrian Houser: a solid bat at .247 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.212), hitter's park.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .290 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Dominic Smith (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL).
RHP Ryan Feltner has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Willy Adames (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).

Platoon edges to target

Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .309 against righties this year.
Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .275 against righties this year.
Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .268 against righties this year.
Troy Johnston (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .317 against righties this year.
Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .311 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Willy Adames (SF) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Jung Hoo Lee (SF), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Nathan Lukes (TOR), Jonathan Aranda (TB), and Alex Bregman (CHC). Cold but due to bounce back: Alec Burleson (STL), Adam Frazier (LAA), William Contreras (MIL), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Lawrence Butler (ATH).

How it played out

7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Willy Adames finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, May 30, 2026)?: Willy Adames (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, May 30, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Saturday, May 30, 2026: Willy Adames (100), Luis Arraez (95), Travis Bazzana (91), Casey Schmitt (82), Jung Hoo Lee (81). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, May 30, 2026?: No — Willy Adames didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .309 against righties this year. Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .275 against righties this year. Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .268 against righties this year. Troy Johnston (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .317 against righties this year. Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .311 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Willy Adames (SF) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .290 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Dominic Smith (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL). RHP Ryan Feltner has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Willy Adames (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Jung Hoo Lee (SF), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Nathan Lukes (TOR), Jonathan Aranda (TB), and Alex Bregman (CHC). Cold but due to bounce back: Alec Burleson (STL), Adam Frazier (LAA), William Contreras (MIL), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Lawrence Butler (ATH).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.