Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, August 31, 2026)?

Pete Alonso (BAL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, August 31, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Monday, August 31, 2026: Pete Alonso (100), Luis Arraez (100), Drake Baldwin (93), Jake McCarthy (93), Zach Neto (92). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, August 31, 2026?

No — Pete Alonso didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .295 against righties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .260 against righties this year. Jackson Holliday (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .194 against righties this year. Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .281 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting tattooed by righties — .296 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL). RHP Anthony Molina has been getting tattooed by righties — .292 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Michael Harris II (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL). RHP Bryce Elder has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonah Cox (SF), Rafael Devers (SF), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF). LHP Cade Povich has been vulnerable to lefties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), TJ Rumfield (COL), and Hunter Goodman (COL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Monday, August 31, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, August 31, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, August 31, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 67%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 68%

Full slate

146/21668%

season 59%

Top call Luis Arraez came through. Pete Alonso didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 7–3

SFaway

ATLhomeTop matchup93 Final · 5–0

SDaway

CINhomeTop matchup65 Final · 3–2

NYMaway

TBhomeTop matchup75 Final · 8–9

SEAaway

BOShomeTop matchup64 Final · 3–6

MIAaway

WSHhomeTop matchup76 Final · 1–11

DETaway

MINhomeTop matchup78 Final · 3–17

MILaway

CHChomeTop matchup68 Final · 1–8

ATHaway

TEXhomeTop matchup65 Final · 3–6

CWSaway

HOUhomeTop matchup73 Final · 2–1

BALaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–10

NYYaway

LAAhomeTop matchup92 Final · 2–1

PHIaway

AZhomeTop matchup100

Not starting54 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 270 shownScore

148 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Tyrone TaylorLF
CHCvsMIL· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T1
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@BOS· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T1
Manny Machado3B
SD@CIN· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
4
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsMIA· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T4
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsNYY· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #19
T4
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsMIL· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T4
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsMIL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #67
T4
Ty France1B
SD@CIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T4
Carson KellyC
CHCvsMIL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
10
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #3
T10
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsPHI· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #7
T10
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsNYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #9
T10
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsDET· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T10
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #15
T10
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #16
T10
Jonah CoxCF
SF@ATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #21
T10
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsNYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #25
T10
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@LAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #32
T10
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@LAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #34
T10
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T10
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T10
Roman AnthonyLF
BOSvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T10
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T10
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T10
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@BOS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T10
Ryan JeffersC
MINvsDET· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T10
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T10
Liam HicksC
TBvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T10
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T10
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T10
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@ATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T10
Dustin HarrisLF
SD@CIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T10
Andrew KniznerC
SF@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T10
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #126
T10
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@MIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #128
T10
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #129
T10
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #130
T10
Brady House3B
WSHvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #141
T10
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #143
T10
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #146
T10
Trevor StorySS
BOSvsSEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #147
T10
Andrew PinckneyLF
WSHvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #152
T10
Cody Freeman3B
TEXvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #154
T10
Luis CampusanoC
SD@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T10
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T10
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T10
Nate Furman2B
SF@ATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T10
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #190
T10
Christian Moore2B
LAAvsNYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T10
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@HOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #212
51
Luis Arraez2B
PHI@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #2
T51
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsBAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #4
T51
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #5
T51
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #11
T51
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsBAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T51
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #18
T51
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T51
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #23
T51
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T51
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T51
Otto LopezSS
MIA@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T51
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T51
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T51
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@CIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T51
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T51
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T51
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T51
Dylan BeaversLF
BAL@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T51
Rafael Devers1B
SF@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T51
Willi Castro2B
COLvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T51
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T51
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T51
Héctor RodríguezRF
CINvsSD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T51
Osleivis Basabe2B
SF@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T51
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T51
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsDET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #66
T51
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T51
Jordan BeckLF
COLvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T51
Connor Norby2B
COLvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T51
Brett CallahanLF
DET@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T51
William ContrerasC
MIL@CHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T51
Samuel BasalloC
BAL@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #77
T51
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #83
T51
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T51
Mickey GasperDH
BOSvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T51
Agustín RamírezDH
MIA@WSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T51
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsPHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T51
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T51
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T51
Carson BengeRF
NYM@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T51
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T51
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T51
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T51
Kody Clemens2B
MINvsDET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T51
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T51
Jonny DeLucaRF
TBvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T51
Kaelen CulpepperSS
MINvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T51
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #109
T51
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T51
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T51
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@CHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T51
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #118
T51
Mark Vientos1B
NYM@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T51
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #124
T51
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@BOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #125
T51
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #127
T51
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #131
T51
Zach McKinstryRF
DET@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #132
T51
Walker JenkinsCF
MINvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #135
T51
Jared Young1B
NYM@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #137
T51
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@CHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #138
T51
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #142
T51
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #145
T51
Cal RaleighC
SEA@BOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #148
T51
Nick AllenSS
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #149
T51
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #155
T51
Carlos CortesRF
ATH@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T51
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T51
Matt ShawRF
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #161
T51
Nelson VelázquezLF
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #166
T51
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@CIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T51
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T51
Sean MurphyC
ATLvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T51
Esteury RuizRF
MIA@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T51
Miguel AmayaC
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T51
Brian NavarretoC
MIA@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T51
Josh LoweLF
LAAvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T51
Taylor WardDH
SEA@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T51
Christopher Morel1B
NYM@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #188
T51
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #192
T51
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #193
T51
David Hamilton3B
MIL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #195
T51
Spencer JonesRF
NYY@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T51
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #197
T51
Connor WongC
BOSvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #198
T51
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #199
T51
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@BOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #202
T51
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #204
T51
Christian VázquezC
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #205
T51
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #206
T51
Garrett StubbsC
PHI@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #208
T51
Weston Wilson3B
SEA@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #209
T51
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #210
T51
Matt McLain2B
CINvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #211
T51
Jonah HeimC
ATH@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #213
T51
Tyler HeinemanC
LAAvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #216
T51
Dane MyersCF
CINvsSD· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T51
Michael ConfortoDH
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, August 31, 2026

Pete Alonso (BAL) is the top hits matchup on the Monday, August 31, 2026 board at 100, with Luis Arraez (PHI) and Drake Baldwin (ATL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. The righty is hitting .234 H/PA against righties this year — and .278 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 24% of his trips. And Tanner Gordon has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .467 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Tanner Gordon, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a hitter's park.

The rest of the top of the board

Luis Arraez (PHI) (100) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: an excellent bat at .287 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
Drake Baldwin (ATL) (93) vs RHP Anthony Molina: a strong bat at .253 into an arm tough on the same side (.143), hot bat.
Jake McCarthy (COL) (93) vs LHP Cade Povich: a solid bat at .246 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Zach Neto (LAA) (92) vs RHP Elmer Rodríguez: a league-average bat at .222 into an arm tough on the same side (.067).
Trea Turner (PHI) (91) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .252 into an arm tough on the same side (.160).
Gabriel Moreno (AZ) (91) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .254 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.210).
Jackson Holliday (BAL) (86) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a league-average bat at .221 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.210), hitter's park.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting tattooed by righties — .296 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
RHP Anthony Molina has been getting tattooed by righties — .292 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Michael Harris II (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL).
RHP Bryce Elder has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonah Cox (SF), Rafael Devers (SF), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF).
LHP Cade Povich has been vulnerable to lefties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), TJ Rumfield (COL), and Hunter Goodman (COL).

Platoon edges to target

Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .295 against righties this year.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .260 against righties this year.
Jackson Holliday (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .194 against righties this year.
Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year.
Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .281 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+9% hits park). Top bat there: Pete Alonso (BAL) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Drake Baldwin (ATL), TJ Rumfield (COL), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), Otto Lopez (MIA), Junior Caminero (TB), and Rafael Devers (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Colt Keith (DET), Isaac Paredes (HOU), Drew Gilbert (SF), Osleivis Basabe (SF), and Dominic Canzone (SEA).

How it played out

6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Pete Alonso finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, August 31, 2026)?: Pete Alonso (BAL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, August 31, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Monday, August 31, 2026: Pete Alonso (100), Luis Arraez (100), Drake Baldwin (93), Jake McCarthy (93), Zach Neto (92). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, August 31, 2026?: No — Pete Alonso didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .295 against righties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .260 against righties this year. Jackson Holliday (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .194 against righties this year. Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .281 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+9% hits park). Top bat there: Pete Alonso (BAL) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting tattooed by righties — .296 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL). RHP Anthony Molina has been getting tattooed by righties — .292 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Michael Harris II (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL). RHP Bryce Elder has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonah Cox (SF), Rafael Devers (SF), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF). LHP Cade Povich has been vulnerable to lefties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), TJ Rumfield (COL), and Hunter Goodman (COL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Drake Baldwin (ATL), TJ Rumfield (COL), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), Otto Lopez (MIA), Junior Caminero (TB), and Rafael Devers (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Colt Keith (DET), Isaac Paredes (HOU), Drew Gilbert (SF), Osleivis Basabe (SF), and Dominic Canzone (SEA).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.