Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, August 30, 2026)?

Jared Triolo (PIT) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Matthew Liberatore. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, August 30, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Sunday, August 30, 2026: Jared Triolo (100), Wade Meckler (100), Elly De La Cruz (100), Jeff McNeil (100), Kyle Schwarber (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, August 30, 2026?

Yes — Jared Triolo got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Jared Triolo (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .260 against lefties this year. Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .267 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .285 against lefties this year. Jeff McNeil (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year. Blaze Alexander (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .250 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Chris Bassitt has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeff McNeil (ATH), Henry Bolte (ATH), and Lawrence Butler (ATH). RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: CJ Abrams (WSH), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), and Daylen Lile (WSH). RHP Zebby Matthews has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Munetaka Murakami (CWS), and Andrew Benintendi (CWS).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Sunday, August 30, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, August 30, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, August 30, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 5/5 (100%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

5/5100%

season 67%

Top 10

9/1090%

season 68%

Full slate

155/25262%

season 58%

Top call Jared Triolo came through. Yordan Alvarez didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 6–2

MIAaway

WSHhomeTop matchup88 Final · 2–3

COLaway

ATLhomeTop matchup86 Final · 1–16

BOSaway

NYYhomeTop matchup81 Final · 0–7

SEAaway

TORhomeTop matchup69 Final · 1–11

KCaway

CLEhomeTop matchup76 Final · 6–1

LADaway

DEThomeTop matchup70 Final · 4–5

SDaway

TBhomeTop matchup62 Final · 1–5

CWSaway

MINhomeTop matchup74 Final · 7–4

TEXaway

MILhomeTop matchup73 Final · 5–4

PITaway

STLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–3

HOUaway

NYMhomeTop matchup91 Final · 8–5

BALaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–2

PHIaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–5

CINaway

CHChomeTop matchup100

Not starting67 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 319 shownScore

159 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsKC· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T1
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@ATH· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
3
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYYvsBOS· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #21
T3
Jo AdellRF
CLEvsKC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #166
T3
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsBOS· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T3
Nick AllenSS
HOU@NYM· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T3
Thomas SaggeseLF
STLvsPIT· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
8
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #2
T8
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #3
T8
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsBAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #9
T8
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsHOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #11
T8
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@NYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T8
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsCOL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #16
T8
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsCIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T8
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@CHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #23
T8
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@STL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T8
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsKC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T8
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T8
Bryan TorresLF
STLvsPIT· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T8
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@NYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #40
T8
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@LAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #42
T8
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsBOS· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T8
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsCWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T8
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsCOL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T8
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsPIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T8
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T8
Heliot RamosLF
NYYvsBOS· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T8
George SpringerDH
TORvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T8
Roman AnthonyLF
BOS@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T8
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@DET· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T8
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T8
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsKC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T8
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T8
Agustín RamírezDH
MIA@WSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T8
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@MIL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T8
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T8
Teoscar HernándezLF
LAD@DET· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T8
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@NYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T8
Brian ServenC
ATHvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #137
T8
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsCIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #140
T8
Ian HappLF
CHCvsCIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #142
T8
Amed Rosario3B
NYYvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #143
T8
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@CHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #145
T8
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@LAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #148
T8
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsMIA· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #149
T8
Josh BellDH
MINvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T8
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsBOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T8
Trevor StorySS
BOS@NYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T8
Cody Freeman3B
TEX@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T8
Oswald Peraza2B
LAAvsPHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T8
Elias DíazC
TEX@MIL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #239
T8
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #245
53
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T53
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsBAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #4
T53
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #5
T53
Blaze Alexander3B
BAL@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #6
T53
Dane MyersCF
CIN@CHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #8
T53
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #10
T53
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #12
T53
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@ATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T53
Edmundo SosaLF
PHI@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T53
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T53
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T53
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T53
Otto LopezSS
MIA@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T53
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T53
Brice Turang2B
MILvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T53
Oneil CruzCF
PIT@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T53
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #46
T53
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T53
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T53
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsPHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #54
T53
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsSEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T53
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T53
Brett BatemanCF
TORvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T53
Connor Norby2B
COL@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T53
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CLEvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T53
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T53
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T53
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T53
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T53
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T53
Jake MangumCF
PIT@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T53
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T53
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T53
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T53
Christian Walker1B
HOU@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T53
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@DET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T53
Carter JensenC
KC@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T53
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T53
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T53
Gleyber Torres2B
DETvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T53
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T53
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T53
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T53
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsSD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T53
Yainer DiazC
HOU@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T53
Corey SeagerSS
TEX@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T53
Ryan JeffersC
MINvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T53
Esteury RuizRF
MIA@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T53
Ty France1B
SD@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T53
Tommy White3B
ATHvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T53
Miguel Rojas2B
LAD@DET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T53
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #119
T53
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #120
T53
Moisés BallesterosDH
LAAvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #121
T53
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T53
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T53
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T53
Luis García Jr.1B
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T53
Salvador PerezDH
KC@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T53
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #138
T53
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #139
T53
Kaelen CulpepperSS
MINvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #150
T53
Troy JohnstonRF
COL@ATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #152
T53
Manny Machado3B
SD@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #155
T53
Mickey MoniakLF
COL@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T53
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #163
T53
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
T53
Jonny DeLucaRF
TBvsSD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T53
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T53
José FermínLF
STLvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T53
Christian Moore2B
LAAvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T53
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T53
Sean MurphyC
ATLvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T53
Derek HillCF
PHI@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T53
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T53
JJ BledayLF
CIN@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T53
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T53
Cal RaleighC
SEA@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T53
Jake Burger1B
TEX@MIL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T53
Héctor RodríguezRF
CIN@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T53
Dustin HarrisLF
SD@TB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T53
Nick Loftin3B
KC@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T53
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T53
Matt McLain2B
CIN@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T53
Ben RortvedtC
LAD@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T53
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T53
Myles StrawCF
TORvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T53
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T53
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KC@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T53
Jorge MateoSS
TBvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T53
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T53
Tyler TolbertSS
KC@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T53
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T53
Enrique Hernández3B
LAD@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T53
Jacob YoungCF
WSHvsMIA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #229
T53
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #233
T53
Gary SánchezC
MILvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #235
T53
Brett SullivanC
COL@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #237
T53
Nick Sogard2B
BOS@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #244
T53
Miguel AmayaC
CHCvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #247
T53
Drew RomoC
CWS@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #249
T53
Michael ConfortoDH
CHCvsCIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #250
T53
Kyle IsbelCF
KC@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #252
T53
Max Muncy3B
LAD@DET· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T53
Spencer JonesRF
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T53
Max Muncy3B
ATHvsBAL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T53
Liam HicksC
TBvsSD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, August 30, 2026

Jared Triolo (PIT) is the top hits matchup on the Sunday, August 30, 2026 board at 100, with Wade Meckler (LAA) and Elly De La Cruz (CIN) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Jared Triolo

Jared Triolo (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Matthew Liberatore. The righty is hitting .260 H/PA against lefties this year — and .333 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Matthew Liberatore has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .313 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Matthew Liberatore too — .400 across 5 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Wade Meckler (LAA) (100) vs RHP Zack Wheeler: a strong bat at .260 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375).
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (100) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: a strong bat at .254 into an arm tough on the same side (.143), hot bat.
Jeff McNeil (ATH) (100) vs RHP Chris Bassitt: a solid bat at .243 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.367).
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (97) vs LHP Yusei Kikuchi: a solid bat at .227 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
Blaze Alexander (BAL) (95) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .238 into an arm tough on the same side (.206).
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (91) vs LHP Zac Thornton: a strong bat at .250 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Dane Myers (CIN) (90) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: a solid bat at .245 into an arm tough on the same side (.143).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Chris Bassitt has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeff McNeil (ATH), Henry Bolte (ATH), and Lawrence Butler (ATH).
RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: CJ Abrams (WSH), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), and Daylen Lile (WSH).
RHP Zebby Matthews has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Munetaka Murakami (CWS), and Andrew Benintendi (CWS).

Platoon edges to target

Jared Triolo (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .260 against lefties this year.
Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .267 against righties this year.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .285 against lefties this year.
Jeff McNeil (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year.
Blaze Alexander (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .250 against lefties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jared Triolo (PIT), Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Drake Baldwin (ATL), Edmundo Sosa (PHI), Lawrence Butler (ATH), and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL). Cold but due to bounce back: Bo Bichette (NYM), CJ Abrams (WSH), Isaac Paredes (HOU), Pete Alonso (BAL), and Alec Burleson (STL).

How it played out

9 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jared Triolo finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, August 30, 2026)?: Jared Triolo (PIT) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Matthew Liberatore. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, August 30, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Sunday, August 30, 2026: Jared Triolo (100), Wade Meckler (100), Elly De La Cruz (100), Jeff McNeil (100), Kyle Schwarber (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, August 30, 2026?: Yes — Jared Triolo got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Jared Triolo (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .260 against lefties this year. Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .267 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .285 against lefties this year. Jeff McNeil (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year. Blaze Alexander (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .250 against lefties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Chris Bassitt has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeff McNeil (ATH), Henry Bolte (ATH), and Lawrence Butler (ATH). RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: CJ Abrams (WSH), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), and Daylen Lile (WSH). RHP Zebby Matthews has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Munetaka Murakami (CWS), and Andrew Benintendi (CWS).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jared Triolo (PIT), Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Drake Baldwin (ATL), Edmundo Sosa (PHI), Lawrence Butler (ATH), and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL). Cold but due to bounce back: Bo Bichette (NYM), CJ Abrams (WSH), Isaac Paredes (HOU), Pete Alonso (BAL), and Alec Burleson (STL).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.