Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Esmerlyn Valdez
Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) tops the board at 100, projected for about 0.53 H+R+RBI per plate appearance across 4.3 projected trips. We build the number bottom-up — summing his projection on every component board — so it moves with each of those matchups instead of a single rate, and inherits their tuning.
The rest of the top of the board
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (86) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .466 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- James Wood (WSH) (86) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .465 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (85) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .463 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (83) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .458 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (82) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .467 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (79) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .461 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Cole Carrigg (COL) (77) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .456 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Lineup watch
288 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.