Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Tuesday, September 8, 2026
Top rbis spot: Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Sean Burke. The lefty is driving in runs at .167 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .065 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 15% of his trips. And Sean Burke has been vulnerable to righties lately — .133 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Sean Burke, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (100) vs RHP Tanner Bibee: an excellent bat at .155 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.154).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (98) vs RHP Hayden Wesneski: an excellent bat at .141 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.029).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (94) vs RHP Landen Roupp: a strong bat at .133 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (93) vs RHP AJ Smith-Shawver: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.185).
- Alejandro Kirk (TOR) (92) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .131 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.077).
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) (91) vs RHP Cal Quantrill: a strong bat at .128 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.040), hot bat.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) (91) vs RHP Cal Quantrill: a strong bat at .136 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.040), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .161 against righties this year.
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .150 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Brandon Lowe finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays