Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Monday, October 5, 2026
Top rbis spot: Jo Adell
Jo Adell (CLE) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Anthony Kay. The righty is driving in runs at .236 RBI/PA against lefties this year — and .130 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 19% of his trips. And Anthony Kay has been getting lit up by lefties lately — .194 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .143 in 7 career PA against Anthony Kay, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- José Ramírez (CLE) (78) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a strong bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.194).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (78) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a strong bat at .127 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) (70) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an excellent bat at .144 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (70) vs RHP Cam Schlittler: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.235).
- Spencer Jones (NYY) (67) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a solid bat at .113 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Angel Martínez (CLE) (67) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.194), due to bounce back.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (66) vs RHP Gavin Williams: a strong bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.222).
Platoon edges to target
- Jo Adell (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .236 against lefties this year.
- José Ramírez (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .134 against lefties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
- Spencer Jones (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .117 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
36 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays