Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Tuesday, October 6, 2026
Top rbis spot: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Dustin May. The righty is driving in runs at .118 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .087 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a RBI in about 12% of his trips. And Dustin May has been vulnerable to righties lately — .125 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .226 in 31 career PA against Dustin May. It all sets up in a park that leans hitter.
The rest of the top of the board
- Manny Machado (SD) (98) vs RHP Dustin May: an excellent bat at .142 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125), hitter's park.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (86) vs RHP Nick Pivetta: a strong bat at .120 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Ty France (SD) (78) vs RHP Dustin May: a strong bat at .123 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125), hitter's park.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (77) vs RHP Nick Pivetta: an excellent bat at .141 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) (76) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: a strong bat at .124 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200), due to bounce back.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) (74) vs RHP Dustin May: a strong bat at .130 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.214), hitter's park.
- William Contreras (MIL) (69) vs RHP Nick Pivetta: an excellent bat at .143 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hitter's park.
Platoon edges to target
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .159 against righties this year.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .125 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year.
- Garrett Mitchell (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .137 against righties this year.
Best parks to drive in runs today
Petco Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) at 100.
Lineup watch
36 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays