Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, August 3, 2026
Top runs spot: Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. The righty is scoring at .215 R/PA against righties this year — and .368 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Shane Bieber has been mostly holding up against righties lately — .111 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Shane Bieber too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- James Wood (WSH) (91) vs RHP Aaron Nola: an excellent bat at .150 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.188), due to bounce back.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (87) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .117 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
- Brice Turang (MIL) (87) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .135 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.083), hot bat.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (82) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a league-average bat at .112 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
- Trea Turner (PHI) (79) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .146 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (78) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .118 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
- Jake Bauers (MIL) (77) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.083), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .212 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .169 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .114 against righties this year.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .189 against righties this year.
- Garrett Mitchell (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .145 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
144 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.