Who has the best runs matchup today (Monday, August 3, 2026)?

Jeremy Peña (HOU) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Monday, August 3, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Monday, August 3, 2026: Jeremy Peña (100), Yandy Díaz (100), Jake Cronenworth (100), Jonathan Aranda (94), Jackson Merrill (90). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Did the top runs matchup get a run on Monday, August 3, 2026?

No — Jeremy Peña didn't record a run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Jake Cronenworth (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .116 against righties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .113 against righties this year. Jackson Merrill (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .126 against righties this year. James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .210 against righties this year. Cedric Mullins (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .121 against righties this year.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Monday, August 3, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, August 3, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, August 3, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on 1+ run, against 47% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 47%

Top 10

3/1030%

season 48%

Full slate

67/14447%

season 38%

Top call Jonathan Aranda came through. Jeremy Peña didn't.

Final · 3–6

WSHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup89 Final · 13–7

STLaway

NYYhomeTop matchup56 Final · 4–3

PITaway

MILhomeTop matchup84 Final · 5–1

SFaway

TEXhomeTop matchup63 Final · 5–10

LADaway

CHChomeTop matchup52 Final · 3–1

TORaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100 Final · 13–9

TBaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–5

SDaway

AZhomeTop matchup100

Not starting34 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 178 shownScore

70 with a RLive count — updates as games play

1
Junior Caminero3B
TB@COL· 2-for-5
3RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #7
T1
Alec Burleson1B
STL@NYY· 3-for-5
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #87
T1
Ezequiel TovarSS
COLvsTB· 4-for-4
3RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #143
4
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@COL· 4-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #4
T4
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@COL· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #8
T4
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsPIT· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #13
T4
Richie Palacios2B
TB@COL· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #27
T4
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@TEX· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #34
T4
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsSTL· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #36
T4
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsLAD· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #41
T4
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@NYY· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #43
T4
Taylor WallsSS
TB@COL· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #50
T4
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsLAD· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #57
T4
Ryan McMahon3B
NYYvsSTL· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #102
T4
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@NYY· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #119
T4
Tim TawaLF
AZvsSD· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #126
17
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsTB· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #15
T17
Abimelec Ortiz1B
WSH@PHI· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #17
T17
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@COL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #20
T17
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@MIL· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #22
T17
Keibert RuizC
WSH@PHI· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #25
T17
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsTB· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #26
T17
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@MIL· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #31
T17
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #32
T17
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsTB· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #39
T17
Daylen LileLF
WSH@PHI· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #42
T17
Kenny PiperC
TB@COL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #44
T17
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsPIT· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #49
T17
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsLAD· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #52
T17
Luis García Jr.1B
NYYvsSTL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #53
T17
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@HOU· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #56
T17
Bryan De La CruzRF
PHIvsWSH· 0-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #59
T17
George SpringerDH
TOR@HOU· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #61
T17
Daniel SusacC
SF@TEX· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #62
T17
Carson KellyC
CHCvsLAD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #63
T17
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@CHC· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #66
T17
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #67
T17
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsTB· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #70
T17
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@NYY· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #72
T17
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsSD· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #74
T17
Ty France1B
SD@AZ· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #75
T17
Andy PagesCF
LAD@CHC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #81
T17
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsSD· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #85
T17
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsSTL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #86
T17
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@MIL· 0-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #88
T17
Edmundo SosaLF
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #89
T17
Drew GilbertCF
SF@TEX· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #90
T17
Iván HerreraDH
STL@NYY· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #92
T17
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@CHC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #93
T17
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsTOR· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #95
T17
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsSF· 4-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #98
T17
Derek HillCF
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #100
T17
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsLAD· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #101
T17
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@MIL· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #110
T17
Grant McCrayCF
SF@TEX· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #112
T17
Adrian Del CastilloDH
AZvsSD· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #114
T17
Teoscar HernándezLF
LAD@CHC· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #115
T17
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsLAD· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #116
T17
Masyn WinnSS
STL@NYY· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #118
T17
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@CHC· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #120
T17
Austin WellsC
NYYvsSTL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #124
T17
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@HOU· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #125
T17
Tyler FreemanRF
COLvsTB· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #128
T17
Kevin AlcántaraDH
CHCvsLAD· 1-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #129
T17
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsTB· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #132
T17
José FermínLF
STL@NYY· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #139
T17
Jimmy CrooksC
STL@NYY· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #144
T17
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsWSH
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T17
Ian HappLF
CHCvsLAD· 0-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T17
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@NYY· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, August 3, 2026

Jeremy Peña (HOU) is the top runs matchup on the Monday, August 3, 2026 board at 100, with Yandy Díaz (TB) and Jake Cronenworth (SD) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. The righty is scoring at .216 R/PA against righties this year — and .348 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 17% of his trips. And Shane Bieber has been getting lit up by righties lately — .154 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Shane Bieber too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Yandy Díaz (TB) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a league-average bat at .116 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
Jake Cronenworth (SD) (100) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a solid bat at .121 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.030).
Jonathan Aranda (TB) (94) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a league-average bat at .112 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
Jackson Merrill (SD) (90) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a solid bat at .129 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.030).
James Wood (WSH) (89) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .150 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.188), due to bounce back.
Junior Caminero (TB) (87) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .118 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
Cedric Mullins (TB) (86) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .120 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).

Platoon edges to target

Jake Cronenworth (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .116 against righties this year.
Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .113 against righties this year.
Jackson Merrill (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .126 against righties this year.
James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .210 against righties this year.
Cedric Mullins (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .121 against righties this year.

How it played out

3 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Jeremy Peña finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Monday, August 3, 2026)?: Jeremy Peña (HOU) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Monday, August 3, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Monday, August 3, 2026: Jeremy Peña (100), Yandy Díaz (100), Jake Cronenworth (100), Jonathan Aranda (94), Jackson Merrill (90). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Did the top runs matchup get a run on Monday, August 3, 2026?: No — Jeremy Peña didn't record a run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Jake Cronenworth (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .116 against righties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .113 against righties this year. Jackson Merrill (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .126 against righties this year. James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .210 against righties this year. Cedric Mullins (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .121 against righties this year.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays