Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, August 2, 2026
Top runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Jake Bennett. The lefty is scoring at .154 R/PA against lefties this year — and .105 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Jake Bennett has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Jake Bennett. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Carter Jensen (KC) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a league-average bat at .109 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.267).
- Nick Loftin (KC) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a league-average bat at .114 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (99) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: an excellent bat at .165 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125), hot bat.
- Cole Young (SEA) (98) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a solid bat at .128 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.082), hot bat.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (96) vs RHP George Kirby: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.210).
- Gleyber Torres (DET) (96) vs LHP Gage Jump: a solid bat at .127 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.132).
- Trea Turner (PHI) (93) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Loftin (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .120 against lefties this year.
- Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
- Gleyber Torres (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .188 against lefties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .147 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays