Who has the best runs matchup today (Sunday, August 2, 2026)?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Jake Bennett. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Sunday, August 2, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Sunday, August 2, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Carter Jensen (100), Nick Loftin (100), Jeremy Peña (99), Cole Young (98). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Did the top runs matchup get a run on Sunday, August 2, 2026?

No — Shohei Ohtani didn't record a run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Nick Loftin (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .120 against lefties this year. Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year. Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year. Gleyber Torres (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .188 against lefties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .147 against righties this year.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Sunday, August 2, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, August 2, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, August 2, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on 1+ run, against 47% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 47%

Top 10

5/956%

season 48%

Full slate

93/25137%

season 38%

Top call Jeremy Peña came through. Shohei Ohtani didn't.

1:35 PM ET

PHIaway

BALhomeTop matchup93 Final · 2–4

WSHaway

ATLhomeTop matchup89 Final · 5–1

STLaway

TORhomeTop matchup84 Final · 2–10

PITaway

CINhomeTop matchup91 Final · 9–1

CWSaway

TBhomeTop matchup83 Final · 0–5

AZaway

CLEhomeTop matchup86 Final · 2–0

MIAaway

NYMhomeTop matchup74 Final · 3–7

TEXaway

HOUhomeTop matchup99 Final · 2–1

NYYaway

CHChomeTop matchup68 Final · 1–8

KCaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–3

MILaway

LAAhomeTop matchup69 Final · 11–0

DETaway

ATHhomeTop matchup96 Final · 4–5

SFaway

SDhomeTop matchup86 Final · 6–7

MINaway

SEAhomeTop matchup98 Final · 8–4

BOSaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

Not starting71 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 340 shownScore

100 with a RLive count — updates as games play

1
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@ATH· 1-for-2
3RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #7
2
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@LAD· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #12
T2
JJ BledayLF
CINvsPIT· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #31
T2
Dillon DinglerC
DET@ATH· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #50
T2
Ty France1B
SDvsSF· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #60
T2
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@LAD· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #86
T2
Nathaniel LoweDH
CINvsPIT· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #105
T2
Rafael Devers1B
SF@SD· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #127
T2
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsPIT· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #144
T2
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsTEX· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #177
T2
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@TB· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #186
T2
Edouard Julien2B
COLvsKC· 0-for-1
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #217
T2
Max Muncy3B
LADvsBOS· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #227
T2
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@HOU· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #239
T2
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@BAL· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #262
16
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsTEX· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #4
T16
Cole Young2B
SEAvsMIN· 4-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #5
T16
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@SEA· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #6
T16
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsMIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #9
T16
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@ATH· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #11
T16
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsAZ· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #17
T16
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsAZ· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #18
T16
Lars NootbaarLF
STL@TOR· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #29
T16
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsWSH· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #33
T16
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@TB· 0-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #34
T16
John RaveRF
KC@COL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #39
T16
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@SD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #40
T16
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsTEX· 4-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #41
T16
Josh BellDH
MIN@SEA· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #43
T16
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsMIN· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #45
T16
Otto LopezSS
MIA@NYM· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #53
T16
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@TB· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #62
T16
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsKC· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #63
T16
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@SEA· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #65
T16
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsKC· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #66
T16
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@LAD· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #68
T16
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsAZ· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #72
T16
Eduardo ValenciaC
DET@ATH· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #78
T16
Jake MangumCF
PIT@CIN· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #81
T16
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsKC· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #85
T16
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsMIN· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #92
T16
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsPIT· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #94
T16
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@BAL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #102
T16
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@BAL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #104
T16
Max ClarkCF
DET@ATH· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #107
T16
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsSF· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #112
T16
Willi Castro2B
COLvsKC· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #113
T16
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@BAL· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #114
T16
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsNYY· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #115
T16
Masyn WinnSS
STL@TOR· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #116
T16
José TenaDH
WSH@ATL· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #119
T16
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@SEA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #121
T16
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@ATH· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #125
T16
Taylor TrammellCF
HOUvsTEX· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #133
T16
Jake Burger1B
TEX@HOU· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #135
T16
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATLvsWSH· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #137
T16
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsAZ· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #143
T16
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsBOS· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #148
T16
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsTEX· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #150
T16
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsWSH· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #151
T16
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@TB· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #156
T16
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsMIL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #157
T16
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@BAL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #158
T16
Petey HalpinCF
CLEvsAZ· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #166
T16
Ben Williamson2B
TBvsCWS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #169
T16
Bryan TorresLF
STL@TOR· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #170
T16
Joe MackC
MIA@NYM· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #175
T16
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@TB· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #182
T16
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsMIN· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #183
T16
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@SEA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #184
T16
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsKC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #193
T16
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@LAD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #194
T16
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@TOR· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #198
T16
Ben MalgeriRF
DET@ATH· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #199
T16
Dane MyersCF
CINvsPIT· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #201
T16
Gavin Sheets1B
SDvsSF· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #203
T16
Nick AllenSS
HOUvsTEX· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #204
T16
Bryan De La CruzRF
PHI@BAL· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #206
T16
Ryan KreidlerSS
MIN@SEA· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #208
T16
Colt EmersonSS
SEAvsMIN· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #210
T16
Jacob GonzalezSS
PIT@CIN· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #212
T16
Xander BogaertsSS
SDvsSF· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #214
T16
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@TOR· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #215
T16
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsWSH· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #219
T16
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@LAD· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #220
T16
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@BAL· 0-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #222
T16
Noelvi MarteRF
CINvsPIT· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #223
T16
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@TB· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #224
T16
Everson PereiraRF
CWS@TB· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #226
T16
Keibert RuizC
WSH@ATL· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #229
T16
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsBOS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #230
T16
Brett SullivanC
COLvsKC· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #232
T16
Ryan McMahon3B
NYY@CHC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #233
T16
José CaballeroSS
NYY@CHC· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #240
T16
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B
CINvsPIT· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #245
T16
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsMIL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #250
T16
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsSTL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #252
T16
Denzer Guzman3B
LAAvsMIL· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #254
T16
Osleivis Basabe2B
SF@SD· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #263
T16
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@LAD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #267

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, August 2, 2026

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the top runs matchup on the Sunday, August 2, 2026 board at 100, with Carter Jensen (KC) and Nick Loftin (KC) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Jake Bennett. The lefty is scoring at .154 R/PA against lefties this year — and .105 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Jake Bennett has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Jake Bennett. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Carter Jensen (KC) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a league-average bat at .109 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.267).
Nick Loftin (KC) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a league-average bat at .114 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
Jeremy Peña (HOU) (99) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: an excellent bat at .165 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125), hot bat.
Cole Young (SEA) (98) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a solid bat at .128 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.082), hot bat.
Trevor Larnach (MIN) (96) vs RHP George Kirby: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.210).
Gleyber Torres (DET) (96) vs LHP Gage Jump: a solid bat at .127 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.132).
Trea Turner (PHI) (93) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182).

Platoon edges to target

Nick Loftin (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .120 against lefties this year.
Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year.
Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
Gleyber Torres (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .188 against lefties this year.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .147 against righties this year.

How it played out

5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Sunday, August 2, 2026)?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Jake Bennett. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Sunday, August 2, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Sunday, August 2, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Carter Jensen (100), Nick Loftin (100), Jeremy Peña (99), Cole Young (98). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Did the top runs matchup get a run on Sunday, August 2, 2026?: No — Shohei Ohtani didn't record a run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Nick Loftin (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .120 against lefties this year. Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year. Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year. Gleyber Torres (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .188 against lefties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .147 against righties this year.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays