Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, August 2, 2026
Top runs spot: Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen (KC) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The lefty is scoring at .103 R/PA against lefties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, a league-average bat that turns into a run in about 11% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been getting lit up by lefties lately — .267 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Kyle Freeland. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (99) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: an excellent bat at .165 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125), hot bat.
- Lane Thomas (KC) (98) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a league-average bat at .112 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (94) vs RHP Max Scherzer: a strong bat at .145 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.077), due to bounce back.
- Trea Turner (PHI) (93) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (89) vs RHP Mitch Keller: a strong bat at .131 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.057).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (89) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: a strong bat at .138 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.031).
- Jac Caglianone (KC) (86) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a league-average bat at .107 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.267).
Platoon edges to target
- Lane Thomas (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .104 against lefties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .177 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .147 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
- Salvador Perez (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .114 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.