Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Top runs spot: Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Trey Yesavage. The righty is scoring at .216 R/PA against righties this year — and .348 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 17% of his trips. And Trey Yesavage has been vulnerable to righties lately — .125 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Trey Yesavage, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (86) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: a strong bat at .133 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Coby Mayo (BAL) (84) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a solid bat at .118 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.217), due to bounce back.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (84) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .133 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.077).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (83) vs RHP Joe Ryan: a solid bat at .121 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.242).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (83) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.210).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (83) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a league-average bat at .116 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Trea Turner (PHI) (81) vs RHP Zack Littell: a strong bat at .132 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.053).
Platoon edges to target
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .140 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .122 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.