Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Top runs spot: Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Trey Yesavage. The righty is scoring at .216 R/PA against righties this year — and .348 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 17% of his trips. And Trey Yesavage has been vulnerable to righties lately — .125 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Trey Yesavage, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (100) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a league-average bat at .116 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (100) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: a strong bat at .145 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.042), due to bounce back.
- Dylan Beavers (BAL) (96) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a solid bat at .117 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.118).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (94) vs LHP Carson Palmquist: a solid bat at .124 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.286), due to bounce back.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (90) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a solid bat at .125 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.118).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (89) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a league-average bat at .112 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (88) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: a strong bat at .133 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .137 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .113 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .140 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Jeremy Peña finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.