Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, August 29, 2026
Top runs spot: Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The lefty is scoring at .163 R/PA against righties this year — and .300 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been getting lit up by righties lately — .185 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .222 in 18 career PA against Merrill Kelly. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (100) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.037), hot bat.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (100) vs RHP Zach Agnos: a strong bat at .138 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.191), hot bat.
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (100) vs RHP Nolan McLean: an excellent bat at .162 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.045).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (99) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .134 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130), due to bounce back.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (97) vs RHP Bailey Ober: an excellent bat at .154 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (94) vs RHP Lake Bachar: an excellent bat at .156 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Matt Olson (ATL) (94) vs RHP Zach Agnos: a strong bat at .143 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.191).
Platoon edges to target
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .163 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .179 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .177 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Rafael Devers finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays