Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, August 29, 2026
Top runs spot: Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. The lefty is scoring at .154 R/PA against righties this year — and .132 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Ryan Feltner has been getting lit up by righties lately — .306 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Feltner. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (95) vs RHP Nolan McLean: an excellent bat at .163 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.045).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (95) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .147 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.185), hot bat.
- Matt Olson (ATL) (94) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .144 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.306).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (94) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.037), hot bat.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (94) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.306), hot bat.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (91) vs RHP Lake Bachar: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (91) vs RHP Bailey Ober: an excellent bat at .153 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .160 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
306 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays