Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, September 12, 2026
Top runs spot: Brice Turang
Brice Turang (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brady Singer. The lefty is scoring at .166 R/PA against righties this year — and .219 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Brady Singer has been getting lit up by righties lately — .250 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .294 in 17 career PA against Brady Singer. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (100) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .148 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.160).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs RHP Paul Skenes: an excellent bat at .160 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.154), hot bat.
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (100) vs LHP Gage Jump: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.179).
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (100) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a solid bat at .128 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.074).
- Jake Bauers (MIL) (99) vs RHP Brady Singer: an excellent bat at .155 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (97) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .131 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.074), due to bounce back.
- James Wood (WSH) (96) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: an excellent bat at .168 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.029).
Platoon edges to target
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .161 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .180 against righties this year.
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .139 against lefties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .137 against righties this year.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Brice Turang finished with 2 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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