Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, September 11, 2026
Top runs spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Wilber Dotel. The lefty is scoring at .178 R/PA against righties this year — and .308 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Wilber Dotel has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Wilber Dotel, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (97) vs RHP Mason Adams: a strong bat at .146 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (90) vs RHP Nolan McLean: a strong bat at .149 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100).
- Zack Gelof (ATH) (85) vs RHP George Kirby: a strong bat at .149 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.161), due to bounce back.
- Tommy Edman (LAD) (84) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: a strong bat at .141 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.135), due to bounce back.
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (83) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .126 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.103).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (82) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.074).
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) (81) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.317), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .178 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .160 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
- Tommy Edman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .138 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays