Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, September 11, 2026
Top runs spot: Chase Meidroth
Chase Meidroth (CWS) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Matthew Liberatore. The righty is scoring at .163 R/PA against lefties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Matthew Liberatore has been getting lit up by lefties lately — .207 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Matthew Liberatore, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (100) vs RHP Anthony Molina: a solid bat at .119 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (100) vs RHP Mason Adams: a strong bat at .148 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs RHP Wilber Dotel: an excellent bat at .160 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (100) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a solid bat at .129 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Jonah Cox (SF) (98) vs LHP Robbie Ray: a solid bat at .126 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.115).
- Jackson Merrill (SD) (98) vs RHP Anthony Molina: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.208).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (97) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .131 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .163 against lefties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .161 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .180 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .137 against righties this year.
- Jonah Cox (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .155 against lefties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Chase Meidroth finished with 2 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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