Best MLB Runs Matchups — Wednesday, September 23, 2026
Top runs spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Gusto. The lefty is scoring at .184 R/PA against righties this year — and .279 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Ryan Gusto has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .069 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Ryan Gusto, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (99) vs RHP George Kirby: an excellent bat at .160 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.069).
- Gleyber Torres (DET) (88) vs LHP Richard Lovelady: a strong bat at .148 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.400).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (87) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.273).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (86) vs RHP Lake Bachar: an excellent bat at .153 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.056).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (84) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .130 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.136).
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) (83) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a strong bat at .143 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Matt Olson (ATL) (82) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: a strong bat at .131 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.500).
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .184 against righties this year.
- Gleyber Torres (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .197 against lefties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
- Mike Trout (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .145 against lefties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .132 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
288 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays