Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, September 24, 2026
Top runs spot: Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mason Barnett. The righty is scoring at .188 R/PA against righties this year — and .167 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Mason Barnett has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .000 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Mason Barnett, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (83) vs RHP Brady Singer: a strong bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.291).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (83) vs RHP Mason Barnett: a strong bat at .146 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167), hot bat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (82) vs RHP Tyler Phillips: an excellent bat at .164 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.115).
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (82) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .147 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.138).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (77) vs RHP Paul Skenes: an excellent bat at .153 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.132).
- Brice Turang (MIL) (74) vs RHP Andrew Painter: a strong bat at .150 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.054).
- Garrett Mitchell (MIL) (74) vs RHP Andrew Painter: a strong bat at .138 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.054).
Platoon edges to target
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .161 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .184 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
216 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays