Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Friday, July 24, 2026
Top total bases spot: Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Grayson Rodriguez. The lefty is racking up bases at .401 TB/PA against righties this year — and .323 over the last two weeks, a league-average bat that turns into a total base in about 37% of his trips. And Grayson Rodriguez has been getting squared up by righties lately — .500 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Grayson Rodriguez too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jacob Wilson (ATH) (100) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .434 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.704), hot bat.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (98) vs RHP Bryce Miller: a strong bat at .448 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.545).
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (97) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a solid bat at .407 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (95) vs RHP Beck Way: a strong bat at .462 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) (94) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .436 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.524), hot bat.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (93) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a league-average bat at .353 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.625).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (93) vs LHP Carson Palmquist: a solid bat at .406 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.571).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Germán Márquez has been getting squared up by righties — .457 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Griffin Conine (MIA), and Liam Hicks (MIA).
- RHP Zebby Matthews has been getting squared up by righties — .443 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jacob Wilson (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Shea Langeliers (ATH).
- RHP Rhett Lowder has been getting squared up by righties — .430 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Alec Burleson (STL), and Jordan Walker (STL).
- LHP Sean Manaea has been vulnerable to lefties — .419 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Tommy Edman (LAD).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .401 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .419 against righties this year.
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .400 against righties this year.
- Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .419 against righties this year.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .329 against righties this year.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Luis Arraez finished with 3 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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