Who has the best total bases matchup today (Saturday, July 25, 2026)?

Cole Young (SEA) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Nathan Eovaldi. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Saturday, July 25, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Saturday, July 25, 2026: Cole Young (100), Drake Baldwin (100), Jackson Chourio (97), Kyle Karros (94), Joc Pederson (94). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Saturday, July 25, 2026?

No — Cole Young didn't record a total base.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .393 against righties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .451 against righties this year. Kyle Karros (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .371 against lefties this year. Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .416 against righties this year. Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .339 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Robert Gasser has been getting squared up by lefties — .453 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Karros (COL), Cole Carrigg (COL), and Hunter Goodman (COL). RHP Ryan Feltner has been getting squared up by righties — .438 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Christian Yelich (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL). RHP Bryce Elder has been getting squared up by righties — .433 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL), and Taylor Ward (BAL). RHP Randy Vásquez has been vulnerable to righties — .407 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Saturday, July 25, 2026

Every hitter on the Saturday, July 25, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Saturday, July 25, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on the total-bases over/under, against 47% on the season.

Top call Kyle Karros came through. Cole Young didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 3–2

KCaway

DEThomeTop matchup71 Final · 3–5

AZaway

WSHhomeTop matchup85 Final · 2–9

LAAaway

SFhomeTop matchup64 Final · 7–2

SDaway

MIAhomeTop matchup79 Final · 6–0

TORaway

BOShomeTop matchup78 Final · 3–1

NYYaway

PHIhomeTop matchup75 Final · 0–3

CLEaway

TBhomeTop matchup70 Final · 11–0

CHCaway

PIThomeTop matchup86 Final · 2–3

ATLaway

BALhomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–2

ATHaway

MINhomeTop matchup87 Final · 4–1

HOUaway

CWShomeTop matchup89 Final · 5–8

COLaway

MILhomeTop matchup97 Final · 4–3

LADaway

NYMhomeTop matchup59 Final · 0–7

CINaway

STLhomeTop matchup78 Final · 1–7

SEAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup100

Not starting62 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 332 shownScore

154 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@PIT· 4-for-5
9TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #68
2
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsLAA· 3-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #73
T2
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsAZ· 3-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #77
4
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsKC· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #67
T4
Cooper PrattSS
MILvsCOL· 3-for-3
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #76
T4
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsLAA· 2-for-3
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #180
7
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsSEA· 3-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #34
T7
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@MIA· 3-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #168
T7
George SpringerDH
TOR@BOS· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #175
10
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsSEA· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #5
T10
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@BOS· 2-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #18
T10
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@BAL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #63
T10
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsSEA· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #65
T10
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsATL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #135
T10
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@MIN· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #140
T10
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@PHI· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #154
T10
Salvador PerezDH
KC@DET· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #162
T10
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@BOS· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #224
T10
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@NYM· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #239
T10
Austin WellsC
NYY@PHI· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #258
T10
Nick Loftin3B
KC@DET· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #260
22
Brice Turang2B
MILvsCOL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #12
T22
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@CWS· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #24
T22
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsCIN· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #29
T22
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsNYY· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #60
T22
Colt Keith3B
DETvsKC· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #100
T22
Luis LaraRF
MILvsCOL· 2-for-2
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #106
T22
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@NYM· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #107
T22
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsCIN· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #115
T22
Michael Busch1B
CHC@PIT· 3-for-6
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #118
T22
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsCLE· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #119
T22
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsCIN· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #125
T22
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsKC· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #134
T22
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@BOS· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #136
T22
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@PHI· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #138
T22
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsAZ· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #149
T22
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@TEX· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #152
T22
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KC@DET· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #173
T22
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHC@PIT· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #190
T22
Tim Tawa1B
AZ@WSH· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #207
T22
Jackson Holliday2B
BALvsATL· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #247
T22
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@PIT· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #257
T22
Jose SiriCF
LAA@SF· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #259
44
Kyle Karros3B
COL@MIL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #4
T44
Christian YelichDH
MILvsCOL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #6
T44
Cole CarriggCF
COL@MIL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #7
T44
Ty France1B
SD@MIA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #22
T44
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@PHI· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #25
T44
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSHvsAZ· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T44
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@BAL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #45
T44
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsLAA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #53
T44
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsCOL· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #54
T44
Manny Machado3B
SD@MIA· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #57
T44
Carter JensenC
KC@DET· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #61
T44
Dylan BeaversLF
BALvsATL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #90
T44
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsLAD· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #91
T44
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@TB· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #92
T44
Evan CarterCF
TEXvsSEA· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #96
T44
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsATH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #105
T44
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@CWS· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #110
T44
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsCLE· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #112
T44
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsCLE· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #123
T44
Daulton VarshoCF
TOR@BOS· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #124
T44
Jacob YoungCF
WSHvsAZ· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #133
T44
Mike TroutCF
LAA@SF· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #148
T44
Bryan De La CruzRF
PHIvsNYY· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #165
T44
Victor CaratiniC
MINvsATH· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #167
T44
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEXvsSEA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #186
T44
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsAZ· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #188
T44
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@BOS· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #195
T44
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOSvsTOR· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #197
T44
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsLAA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #200
T44
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsNYY· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #219
T44
Esteury RuizRF
MIAvsSD· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #231
T44
Teoscar HernándezLF
LAD@NYM· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #234
T44
Ryan KreidlerSS
MINvsATH· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #245
T44
Miguel AmayaC
CHC@PIT· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #267
T44
Logan O'HoppeDH
LAA@SF· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #268
T44
Eli WhiteRF
ATL@BAL· 1-for-1
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
80
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #2
T80
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsCOL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #3
T80
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@MIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #8
T80
William ContrerasC
MILvsCOL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #9
T80
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsCHC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #13
T80
James WoodRF
WSHvsAZ· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #14
T80
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATH@MIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #15
T80
Kyle Stowers1B
MIAvsSD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #16
T80
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@STL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #19
T80
Jake MangumCF
PITvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #27
T80
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #31
T80
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsNYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #35
T80
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@MIL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #36
T80
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsCLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #37
T80
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #42
T80
Steven KwanLF
CLE@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #52
T80
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #55
T80
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BALvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #62
T80
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsSD· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #66
T80
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #71
T80
Taylor WardDH
BALvsATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #74
T80
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #78
T80
JJ BledayLF
CIN@STL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #82
T80
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWSvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #87
T80
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #89
T80
José Ramírez3B
CLE@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #97
T80
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@PIT· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #99
T80
Luke RaleyRF
SEA@TEX· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #101
T80
Andy PagesCF
LAD@NYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #104
T80
Heliot RamosLF
SFvsLAA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #108
T80
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TBvsCLE· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #109
T80
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsSEA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #132
T80
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #137
T80
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@MIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #141
T80
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsLAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #142
T80
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@BOS· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #147
T80
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #153
T80
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@MIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #155
T80
David Hamilton3B
MILvsCOL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #156
T80
Ryan O'HearnRF
PITvsCHC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #158
T80
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@NYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #160
T80
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@MIL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #161
T80
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsLAD· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #163
T80
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #170
T80
Kerry CarpenterRF
DETvsKC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #171
T80
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@SF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #172
T80
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #174
T80
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@SF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #176
T80
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsCLE· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #178
T80
Luis RengifoLF
SD@MIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #181
T80
Henry DavisC
PITvsCHC· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #184
T80
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsLAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #193
T80
Gabriel Arias3B
CLE@TB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #194
T80
Jo AdellRF
LAA@SF· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #199
T80
Alan RodenRF
MINvsATH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #201
T80
Colt EmersonSS
SEA@TEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #202
T80
James McCannC
AZ@WSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #203
T80
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsHOU· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #208
T80
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsSD· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #209
T80
Blaze Jordan3B
STLvsCIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #212
T80
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsCIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #213
T80
José CaballeroSS
NYY@PHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #215
T80
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@BAL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #218
T80
Bryan TorresLF
STLvsCIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #220
T80
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOU@CWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #221
T80
Hunter FeducciaC
TBvsCLE· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #228
T80
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsLAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #232
T80
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZ@WSH· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #233
T80
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsLAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #236
T80
Dalton RushingC
LAD@NYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #240
T80
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@PIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #242
T80
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #244
T80
Zach McKinstryRF
DETvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #246
T80
Freddy FerminC
SD@MIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #249
T80
Austin WynnsC
TEXvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #261

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Saturday, July 25, 2026

Cole Young (SEA) is the top total bases matchup on the Saturday, July 25, 2026 board at 100, with Drake Baldwin (ATL) and Jackson Chourio (MIL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Cole Young

Cole Young (SEA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Nathan Eovaldi. The lefty is racking up bases at .393 TB/PA against righties this year — and .696 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 42% of his trips. And Nathan Eovaldi has been getting squared up by righties lately — .500 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Nathan Eovaldi too — .400 across 5 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Drake Baldwin (ATL) (100) vs RHP Brandon Young: an excellent bat at .501 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.593).
Jackson Chourio (MIL) (97) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a league-average bat at .352 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.100).
Kyle Karros (COL) (94) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a league-average bat at .366 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.792).
Joc Pederson (TEX) (94) vs RHP Bryan Woo: a strong bat at .445 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.533), hot bat.
Christian Yelich (MIL) (93) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a league-average bat at .369 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.750).
Cole Carrigg (COL) (91) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a solid bat at .378 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.792).
Hunter Goodman (COL) (91) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a solid bat at .405 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.792).

Arms giving up extra bases today

LHP Robert Gasser has been getting squared up by lefties — .453 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Karros (COL), Cole Carrigg (COL), and Hunter Goodman (COL).
RHP Ryan Feltner has been getting squared up by righties — .438 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Christian Yelich (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL).
RHP Bryce Elder has been getting squared up by righties — .433 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL), and Taylor Ward (BAL).
RHP Randy Vásquez has been vulnerable to righties — .407 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA).

Platoon edges to target

Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .393 against righties this year.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .451 against righties this year.
Kyle Karros (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .371 against lefties this year.
Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .416 against righties this year.
Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .339 against righties this year.

How it played out

8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Cole Young finished with 0 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Saturday, July 25, 2026)?: Cole Young (SEA) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Nathan Eovaldi. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Saturday, July 25, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Saturday, July 25, 2026: Cole Young (100), Drake Baldwin (100), Jackson Chourio (97), Kyle Karros (94), Joc Pederson (94). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Saturday, July 25, 2026?: No — Cole Young didn't record a total base.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .393 against righties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .451 against righties this year. Kyle Karros (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .371 against lefties this year. Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .416 against righties this year. Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .339 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Robert Gasser has been getting squared up by lefties — .453 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Karros (COL), Cole Carrigg (COL), and Hunter Goodman (COL). RHP Ryan Feltner has been getting squared up by righties — .438 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Christian Yelich (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL). RHP Bryce Elder has been getting squared up by righties — .433 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL), and Taylor Ward (BAL). RHP Randy Vásquez has been vulnerable to righties — .407 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.