Who has the best total bases matchup today (Monday, July 27, 2026)?

CJ Abrams (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Max Scherzer. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Monday, July 27, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Monday, July 27, 2026: CJ Abrams (100), Seiya Suzuki (100), Yordan Alvarez (100), James Wood (98), Jeremy Peña (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Monday, July 27, 2026?

No — CJ Abrams didn't record a total base.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .531 against righties this year. Seiya Suzuki (CHC) — righty bat vs LHP, .475 against lefties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .557 against righties this year. James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .462 against righties this year. Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .341 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Max Scherzer has been getting squared up by righties — .466 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: CJ Abrams (WSH), James Wood (WSH), and Luis García Jr. (WSH). RHP Merrill Kelly has been vulnerable to righties — .407 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake Mangum (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT). LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .400 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Seiya Suzuki (CHC), Alex Bregman (CHC), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC). LHP Noah Schultz has been vulnerable to lefties — .395 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ben Rice (NYY), Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), and Max Schuemann (NYY).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Monday, July 27, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, July 27, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, July 27, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on the total-bases over/under, against 47% on the season.

Top call Seiya Suzuki came through. CJ Abrams didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 3–7

SEAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup78 Final · 8–5

BALaway

DEThomeTop matchup76 Final · 2–3

AZaway

PIThomeTop matchup89 Final · 7–8

PHIaway

MIAhomeTop matchup79 Final · 3–2

TORaway

WSHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–14

ATLaway

NYMhomeTop matchup72 Final · 9–5

NYYaway

CWShomeTop matchup91 Final · 7–3

CHCaway

STLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–4

HOUaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–2

BOSaway

ATHhomeTop matchup95 Final · 0–3

MILaway

SFhomeTop matchup91

Not starting41 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 239 shownScore

132 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsATL· 3-for-5
11TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #100
2
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@STL· 4-for-5
9TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #18
3
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsSEA· 2-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #25
4
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@STL· 4-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #52
5
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsHOU· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #82
T5
Tyrone TaylorLF
NYMvsATL· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #117
T5
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsATL· 3-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #183
8
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@NYM· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #50
T8
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsSEA· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #62
T8
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsPHI· 3-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #81
T8
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsPHI· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #114
T8
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsPHI· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #119
T8
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@DET· 4-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #162
T8
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@DET· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #193
15
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsBOS· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #6
T15
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsAZ· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #12
T15
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@ATH· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #22
T15
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@MIA· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #37
T15
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsBOS· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #46
T15
Taylor TrammellLF
HOU@LAA· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #76
T15
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@MIA· 2-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #88
T15
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@TEX· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #108
T15
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsSEA· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #113
T15
Max KeplerLF
AZ@PIT· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #121
T15
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@DET· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #129
T15
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsSEA· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #134
T15
José FermínLF
STLvsCHC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #142
T15
Ali SánchezC
NYY@CWS· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #153
T15
Luis Urías2B
TOR@WSH· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #168
T15
Grant McCrayCF
SFvsMIL· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #169
T15
Zach McKinstryRF
DETvsBAL· 2-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #177
T15
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSHvsTOR· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB
33
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsTOR· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #16
T33
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsATL· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #36
T33
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsNYY· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #92
T33
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsATL· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #106
T33
Colt Keith3B
DETvsBAL· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #118
T33
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@CWS· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #122
T33
Evan CarterCF
TEXvsSEA· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #123
T33
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@DET· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #143
T33
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsNYY· 1-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #179
T33
Myles StrawCF
TOR@WSH· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #180
T33
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsPHI· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #196
44
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@STL· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #2
T44
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@LAA· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #5
T44
Ben RiceDH
NYY@CWS· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #7
T44
Carson KellyC
CHC@STL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #23
T44
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsAZ· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #28
T44
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@WSH· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #32
T44
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@CWS· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #40
T44
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsHOU· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #56
T44
Colby ThomasRF
ATHvsBOS· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #63
T44
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@ATH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #64
T44
Randal GrichukDH
CWSvsNYY· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #65
T44
Kyle Stowers1B
MIAvsPHI· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #71
T44
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsCHC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #77
T44
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsBAL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #79
T44
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@WSH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #85
T44
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@ATH· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #89
T44
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@TEX· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #90
T44
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsTOR· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #94
T44
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsNYY· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #96
T44
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsBAL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #98
T44
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsAZ· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #102
T44
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsBAL· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #105
T44
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@MIA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #130
T44
Liam HicksC
MIAvsPHI· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #139
T44
Miguel AmayaC
CHC@STL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #141
T44
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsTOR· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #146
T44
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsNYY· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #148
T44
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsPHI· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #149
T44
Jesus RodriguezC
SFvsMIL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #150
T44
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@MIA· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #152
T44
Connor WongC
BOS@ATH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #160
T44
Lars NootbaarDH
STLvsCHC· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #167
T44
Jo AdellRF
LAAvsHOU· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #171
T44
Luis TorrensC
NYMvsATL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #186
T44
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZ@PIT· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #190
T44
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@CWS· 1-for-1
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB
80
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@LAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #3
T80
James WoodRF
WSHvsTOR· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #4
T80
Jake MangumCF
PITvsAZ· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #11
T80
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@CWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #13
T80
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@ATH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #14
T80
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsMIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #19
T80
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@MIA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #24
T80
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsBAL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #27
T80
Cole Young2B
SEA@TEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #30
T80
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@PIT· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #31
T80
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #34
T80
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsHOU· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #43
T80
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T80
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsMIL· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #45
T80
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #47
T80
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@SF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #48
T80
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #51
T80
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsBOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #53
T80
Anthony VolpeSS
NYY@CWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #54
T80
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@NYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #55
T80
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATL@NYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #57
T80
George SpringerDH
TOR@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #59
T80
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@NYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #60
T80
Dylan BeaversLF
BAL@DET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #61
T80
Jacob GonzalezSS
PITvsAZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #67
T80
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@PIT· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #69
T80
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsMIL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #70
T80
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #80
T80
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@SF· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #84
T80
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWSvsNYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #86
T80
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@TEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #87
T80
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@PIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #91
T80
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@DET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #95
T80
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #101
T80
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsBAL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #109
T80
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYMvsATL· 1-for-6
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #112
T80
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@SF· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #125
T80
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsATL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #132
T80
Jared Young1B
NYMvsATL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #133
T80
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #137
T80
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsMIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #138
T80
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #145
T80
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@PIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #156
T80
Joey BartC
ATL@NYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #157
T80
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsSEA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #173
T80
Mitch GarverC
SEA@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #174
T80
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #175
T80
Colt EmersonSS
SEA@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #182
T80
Josh Smith2B
TEXvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #184
T80
Christian Walker1B
HOU@LAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #188
T80
Edgar QueroC
CWSvsNYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #191
T80
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWSvsNYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #195
T80
Christian VázquezC
HOU@LAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #197

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Monday, July 27, 2026

CJ Abrams (WSH) is the top total bases matchup on the Monday, July 27, 2026 board at 100, with Seiya Suzuki (CHC) and Yordan Alvarez (HOU) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: CJ Abrams

CJ Abrams (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Max Scherzer. The lefty is racking up bases at .531 TB/PA against righties this year — and 1.292 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a total base in about 56% of his trips. And Max Scherzer has been thin against righties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .222 in 9 career PA against Max Scherzer. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Seiya Suzuki (CHC) (100) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a solid bat at .411 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.545).
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: an excellent bat at .484 into an arm tough on the same side (.308), due to bounce back.
James Wood (WSH) (98) vs RHP Max Scherzer: a solid bat at .417 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Jeremy Peña (HOU) (97) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: an excellent bat at .516 into an arm tough on the same side (.182), hot bat.
Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) (95) vs LHP Payton Tolle: a league-average bat at .364 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.600), hot bat.
Ben Rice (NYY) (91) vs LHP Noah Schultz: a strong bat at .426 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.000).
Christian Yelich (MIL) (91) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: a solid bat at .382 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.600).

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Max Scherzer has been getting squared up by righties — .466 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: CJ Abrams (WSH), James Wood (WSH), and Luis García Jr. (WSH).
RHP Merrill Kelly has been vulnerable to righties — .407 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake Mangum (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .400 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Seiya Suzuki (CHC), Alex Bregman (CHC), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC).
LHP Noah Schultz has been vulnerable to lefties — .395 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ben Rice (NYY), Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), and Max Schuemann (NYY).

Platoon edges to target

CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .531 against righties this year.
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) — righty bat vs LHP, .475 against lefties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .557 against righties this year.
James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .462 against righties this year.
Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .341 against righties this year.

How it played out

6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play CJ Abrams finished with 0 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Monday, July 27, 2026)?: CJ Abrams (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Max Scherzer. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Monday, July 27, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Monday, July 27, 2026: CJ Abrams (100), Seiya Suzuki (100), Yordan Alvarez (100), James Wood (98), Jeremy Peña (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Monday, July 27, 2026?: No — CJ Abrams didn't record a total base.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .531 against righties this year. Seiya Suzuki (CHC) — righty bat vs LHP, .475 against lefties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .557 against righties this year. James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .462 against righties this year. Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .341 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Max Scherzer has been getting squared up by righties — .466 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: CJ Abrams (WSH), James Wood (WSH), and Luis García Jr. (WSH). RHP Merrill Kelly has been vulnerable to righties — .407 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake Mangum (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT). LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .400 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Seiya Suzuki (CHC), Alex Bregman (CHC), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC). LHP Noah Schultz has been vulnerable to lefties — .395 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ben Rice (NYY), Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), and Max Schuemann (NYY).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.