Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, July 26, 2026
Top total bases spot: Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is racking up bases at .454 TB/PA against lefties this year — and .222 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 38% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties lately — .690 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Kyle Freeland too — .500 across 12 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (89) vs RHP Shane Baz: an excellent bat at .501 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.393).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (87) vs RHP Erick Fedde: an elite bat at .553 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.385).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (87) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a solid bat at .377 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.571).
- Cole Young (SEA) (87) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: a strong bat at .424 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.444).
- Nick Gonzales (PIT) (84) vs RHP Jameson Taillon: a strong bat at .421 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.857), hot bat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (83) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a solid bat at .379 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.710).
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (83) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: a strong bat at .445 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.429), hot bat.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .468 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), William Contreras (MIL), and Christian Yelich (MIL).
- RHP Braxton Ashcraft has been getting squared up by righties — .439 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Ian Happ (CHC).
- RHP Freddy Peralta has been vulnerable to righties — .419 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Mookie Betts (LAD).
- LHP Jeffrey Springs has been vulnerable to lefties — .415 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Byron Buxton (MIN), Kody Clemens (MIN), and Trevor Larnach (MIN).
Platoon edges to target
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .454 against lefties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .451 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .570 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .379 against righties this year.
- Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .393 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.