Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, July 26, 2026
Top total bases spot: Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Cristopher Sánchez. The righty is racking up bases at .577 TB/PA against lefties this year — and .500 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 42% of his trips. And Cristopher Sánchez has been getting squared up by lefties lately — .500 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Cristopher Sánchez too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .378 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.690).
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) (90) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .378 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.690).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (89) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a strong bat at .436 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.710).
- Zach Neto (LAA) (85) vs LHP Carson Whisenhunt: a league-average bat at .369 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Mike Trout (LAA) (79) vs LHP Carson Whisenhunt: a league-average bat at .369 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- William Contreras (MIL) (79) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a league-average bat at .337 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.690).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (78) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a solid bat at .386 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.571).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .468 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Andrew Vaughn (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL).
- RHP Braxton Ashcraft has been getting squared up by righties — .439 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Ian Happ (CHC).
- RHP Freddy Peralta has been vulnerable to righties — .419 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Mookie Betts (LAD), and Shohei Ohtani (LAD).
- LHP Jeffrey Springs has been vulnerable to lefties — .415 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Byron Buxton (MIN), Austin Martin (MIN), and Ryan Jeffers (MIN).
Platoon edges to target
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .577 against lefties this year.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .454 against lefties this year.
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .533 against lefties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .503 against righties this year.
- Zach Neto (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .421 against lefties this year.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Paul Goldschmidt finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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