Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Top total bases spot: Ty France
Ty France (SD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The righty is racking up bases at .508 TB/PA against righties this year — and .892 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 51% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been mostly containing righties lately — .333 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .286 in 14 career PA against Michael Lorenzen. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Manny Machado (SD) (96) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .454 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.333).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (96) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: a strong bat at .423 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.647).
- Jake Cronenworth (SD) (95) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a league-average bat at .345 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.586).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (94) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .370 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.333), due to bounce back.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (90) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a solid bat at .386 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.400).
- Trea Turner (PHI) (90) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: a strong bat at .435 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.548).
- Jake Mangum (PIT) (87) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a league-average bat at .358 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.400), hot bat.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties — .441 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Heriberto Hernández (MIA).
- RHP Colin Rea has been getting squared up by righties — .440 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jordan Walker (STL), Iván Herrera (STL), and JJ Wetherholt (STL).
- LHP Gage Jump has been getting squared up by lefties — .432 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Willson Contreras (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS).
- RHP Slade Cecconi has been vulnerable to righties — .405 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Nathaniel Lowe (CIN), and Sal Stewart (CIN).
Platoon edges to target
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .398 against righties this year.
- Jake Cronenworth (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .276 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .464 against righties this year.
- Jake Mangum (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .352 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .398 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.