Best MLB Walks Matchups — Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Top walks spot: Brice Turang
Brice Turang (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Landen Roupp. The lefty is working counts at .139 BB/PA against righties this year — and .143 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a walk in about 12% of his trips. And Landen Roupp has been around league average against righties lately — .091 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Landen Roupp too — .300 across 10 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (100) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: an elite bat at .153 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.071).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (100) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a strong bat at .110 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.147).
- Willson Contreras (BOS) (98) vs LHP Gage Jump: an excellent bat at .125 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.188), due to bounce back.
- Jahmai Jones (BOS) (93) vs LHP Gage Jump: a solid bat at .100 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.188).
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) (92) vs RHP Peter Lambert: a strong bat at .107 into an arm around league average against the same side (.094).
- James Wood (WSH) (92) vs RHP Shane Bieber: an excellent bat at .141 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.067).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (90) vs RHP Peter Lambert: an excellent bat at .149 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.105).
Platoon edges to target
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .139 against righties this year.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .108 against righties this year.
- Willson Contreras (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .149 against lefties this year.
- Jahmai Jones (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .116 against lefties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Brice Turang finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays