La Liga Match Board
Every match priced by our goals-based goal model — our line (win/draw/win probabilities and their fair odds) next to the books' vig-free consensus, plus total-goals and both-teams-to-score reads.
⚙ New model, graded in the open. The soccer model is brand new and hasn't proven anything — nothing here is a pick. A gold Model lean just marks where we and the books disagree the most — and this league is priced off actual goals, not xG, so trust it even less until it grades out; we're tracking every match publicly to find out if those disagreements mean anything. Research, not betting advice — 21+.
Season · all graded matchesFull ledger →
ML19-20−0.1u
Over 2.519-20−6.5u
BTTS18-21−5.8u
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 31 of 39 on Over 2.5.
Monday, September 7
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
ElcheHOME44%1.4proj+129fair+264mktModel lean+16.3%Draw30%—proj+235fair+271mkt+2.9%
Real SociedadAWAY26%1.0proj+279fair+120mkt-19.0%O2.5 42% · mkt 56%BTTS 49% · mkt 60%
ESPN+
Friday, September 11
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
SevillaHOME62%1.8proj-160fair+136mktModel lean+19.2%Draw24%—proj+312fair+232mkt-5.8%
ValenciaAWAY14%0.8proj+605fair+264mkt-13.3%O2.5 48% · mkt 40%BTTS 46%
ESPN+
Saturday, September 12
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
Racing SantanderHOME30%1.5proj+234fair+155mkt-9.2%Draw24%—proj+316fair+267mkt-3.2%
AlavésAWAY46%1.9proj+117fair+201mktModel lean+12.7%O2.5 66% · mkt 54%BTTS 67%
ESPN+
OsasunaHOME38%1.3proj+160fair+112mkt-8.7%Draw30%—proj+235fair+252mkt+1.4%
EspanyolAWAY32%1.2proj+215fair+305mktModel lean+7.1%O2.5 44% · mkt 44%BTTS 51%
ESPN+
Athletic ClubHOME57%1.7proj-133fair-196mkt-9.2%Draw26%—proj+289fair+405mktModel lean+5.9%
ElcheAWAY17%0.9proj+479fair+616mkt+3.3%O2.5 48% · mkt 56%BTTS 49%
ESPN+
Real MadridHOME70%2.4proj-233fair-484mkt-12.9%Draw19%—proj+428fair+781mktModel lean+7.6%
Rayo VallecanoAWAY11%0.9proj+803fair+1621mktModel lean+5.3%O2.5 62%BTTS 53%
ESPN+
Sunday, September 13
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
Celta VigoHOME47%1.2proj+114fair-120mkt-7.7%Draw34%—proj+197fair+288mktModel lean+7.9%
MálagaAWAY20%0.7proj+411fair+408mkt-0.1%O2.5 27% · mkt 46%BTTS 34%
ESPN+
LevanteHOME13%1.2proj+679fair+1060mktModel lean+4.2%Draw17%—proj+494fair+665mkt+3.8%
BarcelonaAWAY70%2.8proj-237fair-361mkt-8.0%O2.5 75%BTTS 65%
ESPN+
GetafeHOME32%1.2proj+211fair+142mkt-9.2%Draw30%—proj+238fair+204mkt-3.3%
DeportivoAWAY38%1.3proj+161fair+288mktModel lean+12.5%O2.5 45%BTTS 52%
ESPN+
Real SociedadHOME38%1.5proj+160fair+205mktModel lean+5.6%Draw27%—proj+276fair+277mkt+0.0%
Atlético MadridAWAY35%1.5proj+185fair+145mkt-5.8%O2.5 57% · mkt 57%BTTS 61%
ESPN+
Monday, September 14
MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
VillarrealHOME46%1.6proj+117fair-100mkt-4.0%Draw27%—proj+269fair+302mkt+2.2%
Real BetisAWAY27%1.2proj+273fair+300mkt+1.8%O2.5 52% · mkt 59%BTTS 56%
ESPN+
Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).
La Liga table
Updated daily from final results2026-27 LALIGA
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 12 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Alavés | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 10 | LWDWW |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 9 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 | WWWLW |
| 5 | Deportivo | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 8 | DDWW |
| 6 | Atlético Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 | WWDWL |
| 7 | Sevilla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 | LWWLD |
| 8 | Osasuna | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 | WDWWL |
| 9 | Athletic Club | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 | LLLWW |
| 10 | Levante | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | DLDWD |
| 11 | Espanyol | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 | WWLLD |
| 12 | Racing Santander | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 4 | DLWL |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 | LLDLW |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 | LLWDW |
| 15 | Getafe | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 | LLWLD |
| 16 | Villarreal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 2 | LDDLL |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 2 | DLLDD |
| 18 | Málaga | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 2 | LDLD |
| 19 | Elche | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 | WDLLL |
| 20 | Valencia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |