La Liga Match Board — Friday, September 11, 2026

Every La Liga match on Friday, September 11, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 31 of 39 on Over 2.5.

Friday, September 11

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

3:00 PM ET

Proj1.8–0.8

Match page →

SevillaHOME62%1.8proj-160fair+136mktModel lean+19.2%

Draw24%—proj+312fair+232mkt-5.8%

ValenciaAWAY14%0.8proj+605fair+264mkt-13.3%

O2.5 48% · mkt 40%BTTS 46%

ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).