MLS Match Board — Friday, July 25, 2025

Every MLS match on Friday, July 25, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Friday, July 25

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 1–3

New England Revolutionvs MTL

CF Montréal

Gillette Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 3–4

FC Dallasvs NYC

New York City FC

Toyota Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–3

Columbus Crewvs ORL

Orlando City SC

ScottsMiracle-Gro Field · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–0

San Diego FCvs NSH

Nashville SC

Snapdragon Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 0–1

LAFCvs

Portland Timbers

BMO Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).