MLS Match Board — Saturday, April 4, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, April 4, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, April 4, 2026 · how the model graded

ML10-5+4.7u

Over 2.512-3+2.5u

BTTS9-6—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, April 4

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 3–2

xG1.5–1.5

TORToronto FCHOME✓37%1.5xG+173fair+117mkt-9.4%

DRWDraw27%—xG+273fair+278mkt+0.4%

COLColorado RapidsAWAY37%1.5xG+174fair+271mktModel lean+9.6%

O2.5 57% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 61% ✓

FT · 3–0

xG1.7–1.3

NENew England RevolutionHOME✓45%1.7xG+121fair+102mkt-4.4%

DRWDraw26%—xG+286fair+290mkt+0.3%

MTLCF MontréalAWAY29%1.3xG+246fair+303mktModel lean+4.1%

O2.5 58% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 61% ✗

FT · 3–1

xG2.2–1.1

RSLReal Salt LakeHOME✓62%2.2xG-161fair-291mkt-12.8%

DRWDraw21%—xG+371fair+547mktModel lean+5.8%

SKCSporting Kansas CityAWAY17%1.1xG+483fair+920mktModel lean+7.4%

O2.5 65% ✓BTTS 61% ✓

FT · 2–1

xG1.6–1.5

CLTCharlotte FCHOME✓41%1.6xG+143fair+131mkt-2.1%

DRWDraw26%—xG+286fair+277mkt-0.6%

PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY33%1.5xG+204fair+232mkt+2.7%

O2.5 60% · mkt 53% ✓BTTS 63% ✓

FT · 4–2

xG1.9–1.4

RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME✓48%1.9xG+107fair+108mkt+0.1%

DRWDraw24%—xG+309fair+304mkt-0.3%

CINFC CincinnatiAWAY27%1.4xG+267fair+268mkt+0.1%

O2.5 63% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 64% ✓

FT · 2–2

xG2.4–1.1

MIAInter Miami CFHOME✗65%2.4xG-182fair-240mkt-6.0%

DRWDraw20%—xG+402fair+459mkt+2.0%

ATXAustin FCAWAY16%1.1xG+544fair+738mkt+3.6%

O2.5 68% ✓BTTS 62% ✓

FT · 1–1

xG1.7–1.2

NYCNew York City FCHOME✗48%1.7xG+108fair-120mkt-6.5%

DRWDraw26%—xG+285fair+314mkt+1.8%

STLSt. Louis CITY SCAWAY26%1.2xG+284fair+371mktModel lean+4.8%

O2.5 56% · mkt 55% ✗BTTS 59% ✓

FT · 0–4

xG1.4–1.3

DCD.C. UnitedHOME✗38%1.4xG+164fair+137mkt-4.4%

DRWDraw28%—xG+256fair+259mkt+0.2%

DALFC DallasAWAY34%1.3xG+194fair+237mktModel lean+4.4%

O2.5 51% · mkt 51% ✓BTTS 57% ✗

FT · 1–3

xG1.4–1.4

ATLAtlanta United FCHOME✗37%1.4xG+168fair+203mktModel lean+4.3%

DRWDraw28%—xG+263fair+270mkt+0.5%

CLBColumbus CrewAWAY35%1.4xG+184fair+151mkt-4.7%

O2.5 54% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 58% ✓

FT · 0–1

xG1.4–1.4

HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME36%1.4xG+177fair+174mkt-0.4%

DRWDraw27%—xG+264fair+255mkt-0.7%

SEASeattle Sounders FCAWAY✓36%1.4xG+174fair+183mkt+1.1%

O2.5 54% · mkt 53% ✗BTTS 59% ✗

FT · 1–0

xG1.6–1.5

CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✓40%1.6xG+151fair+158mkt+1.0%

DRWDraw26%—xG+286fair+235mkt-3.9%

NSHNashville SCAWAY34%1.5xG+192fair+217mkt+2.7%

O2.5 60% · mkt 53% ✗BTTS 63% ✗

FT · 6–0

xG2.5–1.1

LAFCLAFCHOME✓66%2.5xG-198fair-288mkt-7.8%

DRWDraw19%—xG+423fair+564mktModel lean+4.1%

ORLOrlando City SCAWAY14%1.1xG+592fair+831mkt+3.7%

O2.5 69% ✓BTTS 62% ✗

FT · 3–2

xG2.6–0.9

VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✓72%2.6xG-252fair-263mkt-0.9%

DRWDraw17%—xG+473fair+518mkt+1.3%

PORPortland TimbersAWAY11%0.9xG+812fair+790mkt-0.3%

O2.5 68% ✓BTTS 57% ✓

FT · 3–0

xG2.0–1.3

SJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME✓52%2.0xG-109fair+139mktModel lean+10.2%

DRWDraw24%—xG+319fair+289mkt-1.9%

SDSan Diego FCAWAY24%1.3xG+315fair+204mkt-8.8%

O2.5 63% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 63% ✗

FT · 1–2

xG1.9–1.3

LALA GalaxyHOME✗50%1.9xG+100fair+101mkt+0.2%

DRWDraw24%—xG+309fair+304mkt-0.3%

MINMinnesota United FCAWAY26%1.3xG+290fair+285mkt-0.3%

O2.5 62% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 63% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).