MLS Match Board — Saturday, April 11, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, April 11, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, April 11, 2026 · how the model graded

ML7-6+2.1u

Over 2.58-5−1.2u

BTTS10-3—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, April 11

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 1–1

xG1.6–1.2

TORToronto FCHOME✗47%1.6xG+111fair+154mktModel lean+7.9%

DRWDraw27%—xG+273fair+277mkt+0.3%

CINFC CincinnatiAWAY26%1.2xG+287fair+194mkt-8.2%

O2.5 53% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 56% ✓

FT · 1–2

xG1.6–1.5

ATXAustin FCHOME✗39%1.6xG+153fair+139mkt-2.3%

DRWDraw26%—xG+284fair+275mkt-0.7%

LALA GalaxyAWAY35%1.5xG+190fair+214mkt+2.7%

O2.5 60% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 63% ✓

FT · 1–2

xG1.5–1.5

MTLCF MontréalHOME36%1.5xG+175fair+162mkt-1.9%

DRWDraw26%—xG+282fair+269mkt-0.9%

PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY✓37%1.5xG+167fair+193mkt+3.4%

O2.5 59% · mkt 52% ✓BTTS 63% ✓

FT · 2–1

xG1.2–1.8

PORPortland TimbersHOME25%1.2xG+294fair+269mkt-1.7%

DRWDraw25%—xG+297fair+315mkt+1.1%

LAFCLAFCAWAY✗49%1.8xG+102fair+106mkt+0.9%

O2.5 59% ✓BTTS 61% ✓

FT · 2–2

xG2.7–1.3

MIAInter Miami CFHOME✗66%2.7xG-194fair-206mkt-1.4%

DRWDraw18%—xG+449fair+435mkt-0.5%

RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY16%1.3xG+534fair+594mkt+1.4%

O2.5 75% ✓BTTS 68% ✓

FT · 1–0

xG1.6–1.1

NENew England RevolutionHOME✓47%1.6xG+114fair+101mkt-3.0%

DRWDraw28%—xG+263fair+272mkt+0.7%

DCD.C. UnitedAWAY26%1.1xG+287fair+326mkt+2.3%

O2.5 50% · mkt 47% ✗BTTS 54% ✗

FT · 1–2

xG1.4–1.5

CLTCharlotte FCHOME34%1.4xG+192fair+150mkt-5.8%

DRWDraw27%—xG+274fair+255mkt-1.4%

NSHNashville SCAWAY✓39%1.5xG+157fair+216mktModel lean+7.3%

O2.5 57% · mkt 51% ✓BTTS 61% ✓

FT · 2–0

xG2.1–1.0

VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✓60%2.1xG-152fair-157mkt-0.7%

DRWDraw22%—xG+346fair+368mkt+1.1%

NYCNew York City FCAWAY17%1.0xG+480fair+482mkt+0.1%

O2.5 61% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 58% ✗

FT · 1–0

xG2.1–1.1

CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✓59%2.1xG-142fair-152mkt-1.7%

DRWDraw23%—xG+339fair+355mkt+0.8%

ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY19%1.1xG+439fair+479mkt+1.3%

O2.5 61% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 59% ✗

FT · 1–3

xG1.2–2.1

SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME21%1.2xG+373fair+353mkt-0.9%

DRWDraw23%—xG+334fair+355mkt+1.1%

SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY✓56%2.1xG-126fair-127mkt-0.2%

O2.5 63% ✓BTTS 62% ✓

FT · 1–1

xG1.8–1.4

DALFC DallasHOME✗47%1.8xG+112fair+103mkt-2.1%

DRWDraw25%—xG+303fair+305mkt+0.1%

STLSt. Louis CITY SCAWAY28%1.4xG+257fair+288mkt+2.2%

O2.5 62% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 64% ✓

FT · 6–2

xG2.0–1.3

COLColorado RapidsHOME✓52%2.0xG-107fair+131mktModel lean+8.5%

DRWDraw24%—xG+322fair+258mkt-4.3%

HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY25%1.3xG+307fair+251mkt-4.0%

O2.5 64% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 64% ✓

FT · 1–2

xG1.9–1.4

SDSan Diego FCHOME✗50%1.9xG+102fair-109mkt-2.7%

DRWDraw24%—xG+317fair+318mkt+0.1%

MINMinnesota United FCAWAY27%1.4xG+277fair+323mkt+2.9%

O2.5 65% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 65% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).