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MLS Match Board — Saturday, April 11, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, April 11, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, April 11, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 449 of 450 on ML, 258 of 450 on Over 2.5, 211 of 450 on BTTS.

Saturday, April 11

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 1–1
xG1.6–1.2
Match page →
TORToronto FCHOME✗47%1.6xG+111fair+154mktModel lean+7.9%
Draw27%—xG+273fair+277mkt+0.3%
CINFC CincinnatiAWAY26%1.2xG+287fair+194mkt-8.2%
O2.5 53% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 56% ✓1H O1.5 36% ✓
FT · 1–2
xG1.6–1.5
Match page →
ATXAustin FCHOME✗39%1.6xG+153fair+139mkt-2.3%
Draw26%—xG+284fair+275mkt-0.7%
LALA GalaxyAWAY35%1.5xG+190fair+214mkt+2.7%
O2.5 60% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 63% ✓1H O1.5 41% ✓
FT · 1–2
xG1.5–1.5
Match page →
MTLCF MontréalHOME36%1.5xG+175fair+162mkt-1.9%
Draw26%—xG+282fair+269mkt-0.9%
PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY✓37%1.5xG+167fair+193mkt+3.4%
O2.5 59% · mkt 52% ✓BTTS 63% ✓1H O1.5 40% ✓
FT · 2–1
xG1.2–1.8
Match page →
PORPortland TimbersHOME25%1.2xG+294fair+269mkt-1.7%
Draw25%—xG+297fair+315mkt+1.1%
LAFCLAFCAWAY✗49%1.8xG+102fair+106mkt+0.9%
O2.5 59% ✓BTTS 61% ✓1H O1.5 40% ✓
FT · 2–2
xG2.7–1.3
Match page →
MIAInter Miami CFHOME✗66%2.7xG-194fair-206mkt-1.4%
Draw18%—xG+449fair+435mkt-0.5%
RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY16%1.3xG+534fair+594mkt+1.4%
O2.5 75% ✓BTTS 68% ✓1H O1.5 53% ✓
FT · 1–2
xG1.4–1.5
Match page →
CLTCharlotte FCHOME34%1.4xG+192fair+150mkt-5.8%
Draw27%—xG+274fair+255mkt-1.4%
NSHNashville SCAWAY✓39%1.5xG+157fair+216mktModel lean+7.3%
O2.5 57% · mkt 51% ✓BTTS 61% ✓1H O1.5 38% ✓
FT · 1–0
xG1.6–1.1
Match page →
NENew England RevolutionHOME✓47%1.6xG+114fair+101mkt-3.0%
Draw28%—xG+263fair+272mkt+0.7%
DCD.C. UnitedAWAY26%1.1xG+287fair+326mkt+2.3%
O2.5 50% · mkt 47% ✗BTTS 54% ✗1H O1.5 34% ✓
FT · 2–0
xG2.1–1.0
Match page →
VANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✓60%2.1xG-152fair-157mkt-0.7%
Draw22%—xG+346fair+368mkt+1.1%
NYCNew York City FCAWAY17%1.0xG+480fair+482mkt+0.1%
O2.5 61% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 58% ✗1H O1.5 41% ✓
FT · 1–3
xG1.2–2.1
Match page →
SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME21%1.2xG+373fair+353mkt-0.9%
Draw23%—xG+334fair+355mkt+1.1%
SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY✓56%2.1xG-126fair-127mkt-0.2%
O2.5 63% ✓BTTS 62% ✓1H O1.5 43% ✗
FT · 1–0
xG2.1–1.1
Match page →
CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✓59%2.1xG-142fair-152mkt-1.7%
Draw23%—xG+339fair+355mkt+0.8%
ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY19%1.1xG+439fair+479mkt+1.3%
O2.5 61% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 59% ✗1H O1.5 42% ✓
FT · 1–1
xG1.8–1.4
Match page →
DALFC DallasHOME✗47%1.8xG+112fair+103mkt-2.1%
Draw25%—xG+303fair+305mkt+0.1%
STLSt. Louis CITY SCAWAY28%1.4xG+257fair+288mkt+2.2%
O2.5 62% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 64% ✓1H O1.5 42% ✓
FT · 6–2
xG2.0–1.3
Match page →
COLColorado RapidsHOME✓52%2.0xG-107fair+131mktModel lean+8.5%
Draw24%—xG+322fair+258mkt-4.3%
HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY25%1.3xG+307fair+251mkt-4.0%
O2.5 64% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 64% ✓1H O1.5 44% ✗
FT · 1–2
xG1.9–1.4
Match page →
SDSan Diego FCHOME✗50%1.9xG+102fair-109mkt-2.7%
Draw24%—xG+317fair+318mkt+0.1%
MINMinnesota United FCAWAY27%1.4xG+277fair+323mkt+2.9%
O2.5 65% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 65% ✓1H O1.5 44% ✗

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).