MLS Match Board — Sunday, April 12, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, April 12, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, April 12, 2026 · how the model graded

ML0-1−1.0u

Over 2.50-1—

BTTS1-0—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Sunday, April 12

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 1–1

xG2.1–1.3

CLBColumbus CrewHOME✗56%2.1xG-130fair-204mkt-10.6%

DRWDraw22%—xG+348fair+459mktModel lean+4.5%

ORLOrlando City SCAWAY21%1.3xG+372fair+585mktModel lean+6.6%

O2.5 66% ✗BTTS 64% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).