MLS Match Board — Sunday, April 26, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, April 26, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, April 26, 2026 · how the model graded

ML1-0+1.6u

Over 2.51-0+0.5u

BTTS1-0—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Sunday, April 26

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 2–1

xG1.8–1.3

LALA GalaxyHOME✓49%1.8xG+106fair+171mktModel lean+11.6%

DRWDraw25%—xG+304fair+288mkt-1.0%

RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY27%1.3xG+274fair+169mkt-10.4%

O2.5 62% · mkt 61% ✓BTTS 63% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).