MLS Match Board — Saturday, May 2, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, May 2, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, May 2, 2026 · how the model graded

ML4-9−5.2u

Over 2.55-8−3.5u

BTTS8-5—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, May 2

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 1–1

xG1.3–1.6

TORToronto FCHOME30%1.3xG+232fair+292mktModel lean+4.6%

DRWDraw26%—xG+280fair+300mkt+1.3%

SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY✗44%1.6xG+130fair+103mkt-5.8%

O2.5 57% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 61% ✓

FT · 1–1

xG1.1–1.8

SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME21%1.1xG+372fair+482mktModel lean+4.0%

DRWDraw25%—xG+297fair+366mkt+3.7%

SEASeattle Sounders FCAWAY✗54%1.8xG-116fair-157mkt-7.4%

O2.5 55% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 56% ✓

FT · 2–0

xG2.0–1.2

RSLReal Salt LakeHOME✓54%2.0xG-119fair-200mkt-12.3%

DRWDraw23%—xG+328fair+433mktModel lean+4.6%

PORPortland TimbersAWAY22%1.2xG+348fair+593mktModel lean+7.9%

O2.5 63% ✗BTTS 63% ✗

FT · 3–4

xG2.7–1.2

MIAInter Miami CFHOME✗68%2.7xG-214fair-275mkt-5.1%

DRWDraw18%—xG+468fair+568mkt+2.6%

ORLOrlando City SCAWAY14%1.2xG+602fair+754mkt+2.5%

O2.5 75% ✓BTTS 66% ✓

FT · 3–1

xG1.6–1.2

ATLAtlanta United FCHOME✓46%1.6xG+117fair+124mkt+1.3%

DRWDraw27%—xG+273fair+262mkt-0.9%

MTLCF MontréalAWAY27%1.2xG+268fair+251mkt-1.3%

O2.5 54% · mkt 54% ✓BTTS 58% ✓

FT · 0–2

xG1.7–1.7

RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME✗39%1.7xG+158fair+149mkt-1.3%

DRWDraw25%—xG+306fair+295mkt-0.7%

DALFC DallasAWAY37%1.7xG+174fair+189mkt+2.0%

O2.5 66% ✗BTTS 68% ✗

FT · 2–3

xG1.7–1.2

CLBColumbus CrewHOME✗47%1.7xG+113fair-113mkt-6.1%

DRWDraw26%—xG+279fair+308mkt+1.8%

MINMinnesota United FCAWAY27%1.2xG+274fair+347mktModel lean+4.3%

O2.5 55% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 58% ✓

FT · 0–0

xG1.5–1.4

PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME✗40%1.5xG+151fair+131mkt-3.5%

DRWDraw27%—xG+268fair+257mkt-0.9%

NSHNashville SCAWAY33%1.4xG+203fair+249mktModel lean+4.3%

O2.5 55% · mkt 48% ✗BTTS 59% ✗

FT · 1–0

xG1.6–1.4

NENew England RevolutionHOME✓40%1.6xG+151fair+131mkt-3.4%

DRWDraw26%—xG+278fair+278mkt-0.0%

CLTCharlotte FCAWAY34%1.4xG+197fair+233mkt+3.6%

O2.5 58% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 61% ✗

FT · 1–0

xG1.6–1.5

HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME✓41%1.6xG+144fair+105mkt-7.9%

DRWDraw26%—xG+285fair+301mkt+1.1%

COLColorado RapidsAWAY33%1.5xG+202fair+288mktModel lean+7.3%

O2.5 60% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 63% ✗

FT · 2–3

xG2.4–1.4

CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✗58%2.4xG-137fair-124mkt+2.4%

DRWDraw21%—xG+380fair+354mkt-1.2%

CINFC CincinnatiAWAY21%1.4xG+369fair+346mkt-1.1%

O2.5 73% ✓BTTS 69% ✓

FT · 2–2

xG1.5–1.6

SDSan Diego FCHOME35%1.5xG+184fair+171mkt-1.7%

DRWDraw26%—xG+285fair+298mkt+0.9%

LAFCLAFCAWAY✗39%1.6xG+158fair+164mkt+1.0%

O2.5 60% ✓BTTS 63% ✓

FT · 1–1

xG1.4–1.8

LALA GalaxyHOME29%1.4xG+244fair+300mktModel lean+4.1%

DRWDraw25%—xG+306fair+319mkt+0.8%

VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY✗46%1.8xG+116fair-105mkt-4.8%

O2.5 64% ✗BTTS 65% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).