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MLS Match Board — Saturday, May 2, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, May 2, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, May 2, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 258 of 449 on Over 2.5, 211 of 449 on BTTS.

Saturday, May 2

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 1–1
xG1.3–1.6
Match page →
TORToronto FCHOME30%1.3xG+232fair+292mktModel lean+4.6%
Draw26%—xG+280fair+300mkt+1.3%
SJSan Jose EarthquakesAWAY✗44%1.6xG+130fair+103mkt-5.8%
O2.5 57% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 61% ✓1H O1.5 39% ✗
FT · 1–1
xG1.1–1.8
Match page →
SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME21%1.1xG+372fair+482mktModel lean+4.0%
Draw25%—xG+297fair+366mkt+3.7%
SEASeattle Sounders FCAWAY✗54%1.8xG-116fair-157mkt-7.4%
O2.5 55% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 56% ✓1H O1.5 37% ✗
FT · 2–0
xG2.0–1.2
Match page →
RSLReal Salt LakeHOME✓54%2.0xG-119fair-200mkt-12.3%
Draw23%—xG+328fair+433mktModel lean+4.6%
PORPortland TimbersAWAY22%1.2xG+348fair+593mktModel lean+7.9%
O2.5 63% ✗BTTS 63% ✗1H O1.5 43% ✗
FT · 3–4
xG2.7–1.2
Match page →
MIAInter Miami CFHOME✗68%2.7xG-214fair-275mkt-5.1%
Draw18%—xG+468fair+568mkt+2.6%
ORLOrlando City SCAWAY14%1.2xG+602fair+754mkt+2.5%
O2.5 75% ✓BTTS 66% ✓1H O1.5 53% ✓
FT · 3–1
xG1.6–1.2
Match page →
ATLAtlanta United FCHOME✓46%1.6xG+117fair+124mkt+1.3%
Draw27%—xG+273fair+262mkt-0.9%
MTLCF MontréalAWAY27%1.2xG+268fair+251mkt-1.3%
O2.5 54% · mkt 54% ✓BTTS 58% ✓1H O1.5 37% ✗
FT · 0–2
xG1.7–1.7
Match page →
RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME✗39%1.7xG+158fair+149mkt-1.3%
Draw25%—xG+306fair+295mkt-0.7%
DALFC DallasAWAY37%1.7xG+174fair+189mkt+2.0%
O2.5 66% ✗BTTS 68% ✗1H O1.5 45% ✓
FT · 2–3
xG1.7–1.2
Match page →
CLBColumbus CrewHOME✗47%1.7xG+113fair-113mkt-6.1%
Draw26%—xG+279fair+308mkt+1.8%
MINMinnesota United FCAWAY27%1.2xG+274fair+347mktModel lean+4.3%
O2.5 55% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 58% ✓1H O1.5 37% ✓
FT · 0–0
xG1.5–1.4
Match page →
PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME✗40%1.5xG+151fair+131mkt-3.5%
Draw27%—xG+268fair+257mkt-0.9%
NSHNashville SCAWAY33%1.4xG+203fair+249mktModel lean+4.3%
O2.5 55% · mkt 48% ✗BTTS 59% ✗1H O1.5 37% ✓
FT · 1–0
xG1.6–1.4
Match page →
NENew England RevolutionHOME✓40%1.6xG+151fair+131mkt-3.4%
Draw26%—xG+278fair+278mkt-0.0%
CLTCharlotte FCAWAY34%1.4xG+197fair+233mkt+3.6%
O2.5 58% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 61% ✗1H O1.5 39% ✓
FT · 1–0
xG1.6–1.5
Match page →
HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME✓41%1.6xG+144fair+105mkt-7.9%
Draw26%—xG+285fair+301mkt+1.1%
COLColorado RapidsAWAY33%1.5xG+202fair+288mktModel lean+7.3%
O2.5 60% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 63% ✗1H O1.5 41% ✓
FT · 2–3
xG2.4–1.4
Match page →
CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✗58%2.4xG-137fair-124mkt+2.4%
Draw21%—xG+380fair+354mkt-1.2%
CINFC CincinnatiAWAY21%1.4xG+369fair+346mkt-1.1%
O2.5 73% ✓BTTS 69% ✓1H O1.5 51% ✓
FT · 2–2
xG1.5–1.6
Match page →
SDSan Diego FCHOME35%1.5xG+184fair+171mkt-1.7%
Draw26%—xG+285fair+298mkt+0.9%
LAFCLAFCAWAY✗39%1.6xG+158fair+164mkt+1.0%
O2.5 60% ✓BTTS 63% ✓1H O1.5 41% ✓
FT · 1–1
xG1.4–1.8
Match page →
LALA GalaxyHOME29%1.4xG+244fair+300mktModel lean+4.1%
Draw25%—xG+306fair+319mkt+0.8%
VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY✗46%1.8xG+116fair-105mkt-4.8%
O2.5 64% ✗BTTS 65% ✓1H O1.5 43% ✓

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).