MLS Match Board — Sunday, May 3, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, May 3, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, May 3, 2026 · how the model graded

ML0-2−2.0u

Over 2.50-2−2.0u

BTTS0-2—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Sunday, May 3

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 0–2

xG1.7–1.0

NYCNew York City FCHOME✗53%1.7xG-112fair-115mkt-0.7%

DRWDraw26%—xG+286fair+288mkt+0.2%

DCD.C. UnitedAWAY21%1.0xG+369fair+392mkt+1.0%

O2.5 52% · mkt 50% ✗BTTS 54% ✗

FT · 2–0

xG1.6–1.7

ATXAustin FCHOME35%1.6xG+185fair+175mkt-1.3%

DRWDraw25%—xG+296fair+262mkt-2.4%

STLSt. Louis CITY SCAWAY✗40%1.7xG+153fair+180mkt+3.9%

O2.5 63% · mkt 52% ✗BTTS 65% ✗

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).