MLS Match Board — Sunday, May 3, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, May 3, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, May 3, 2026 · how the model graded

2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 258 of 449 on Over 2.5, 211 of 449 on BTTS.

Sunday, May 3

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge

FT · 0–2

xG1.7–1.0

Match page →

New York City FCHOME✗53%1.7xG-112fair-115mkt-0.7%

Draw26%—xG+286fair+288mkt+0.2%

D.C. UnitedAWAY21%1.0xG+369fair+392mkt+1.0%

O2.5 52% · mkt 50% ✗BTTS 54% ✗1H O1.5 35% ✓

FT · 2–0

xG1.6–1.7

Match page →

Austin FCHOME35%1.6xG+185fair+175mkt-1.3%

Draw25%—xG+296fair+262mkt-2.4%

St. Louis CITY SCAWAY✗40%1.7xG+153fair+180mkt+3.9%

O2.5 63% · mkt 52% ✗BTTS 65% ✗1H O1.5 43% ✓

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).