MLS Match Board — Saturday, May 9, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, May 9, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, May 9, 2026 · how the model graded

ML4-8−4.5u

Over 2.58-4+2.1u

BTTS9-3—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, May 9

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 2–4

xG1.5–1.6

TORToronto FCHOME34%1.5xG+192fair+350mktModel lean+12.0%

DRWDraw26%—xG+281fair+363mktModel lean+4.7%

MIAInter Miami CFAWAY✓39%1.6xG+153fair-128mkt-16.7%

O2.5 59% ✓BTTS 62% ✓

FT · 1–3

xG2.7–1.3

CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✗66%2.7xG-190fair-172mkt+2.3%

DRWDraw18%—xG+452fair+416mkt-1.3%

RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY16%1.3xG+513fair+484mkt-0.8%

O2.5 77% ✓BTTS 69% ✓

FT · 2–0

xG1.9–1.4

MTLCF MontréalHOME✓47%1.9xG+112fair+112mkt+0.1%

DRWDraw24%—xG+312fair+313mkt+0.1%

ORLOrlando City SCAWAY29%1.4xG+250fair+255mkt+0.4%

O2.5 65% ✗BTTS 66% ✗

FT · 2–2

xG2.1–1.4

CLTCharlotte FCHOME✗52%2.1xG-108fair+130mktModel lean+8.3%

DRWDraw23%—xG+334fair+299mkt-2.0%

CINFC CincinnatiAWAY25%1.4xG+299fair+219mkt-6.3%

O2.5 67% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 67% ✓

FT · 1–2

xG1.6–1.4

ATLAtlanta United FCHOME✗41%1.6xG+147fair+145mkt-0.2%

DRWDraw27%—xG+277fair+277mkt+0.0%

LALA GalaxyAWAY33%1.4xG+204fair+203mkt-0.1%

O2.5 57% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 61% ✓

FT · 2–1

xG1.4–1.4

NENew England RevolutionHOME36%1.4xG+178fair+178mkt+0.0%

DRWDraw27%—xG+264fair+256mkt-0.6%

PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY✗37%1.4xG+174fair+178mkt+0.5%

O2.5 54% · mkt 50% ✓BTTS 58% ✓

FT · 3–1

xG1.8–1.3

DALFC DallasHOME✓49%1.8xG+104fair+135mktModel lean+6.5%

DRWDraw25%—xG+302fair+299mkt-0.2%

RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY26%1.3xG+284fair+206mkt-6.6%

O2.5 61% ✓BTTS 62% ✓

FT · 2–2

xG1.8–1.0

NSHNashville SCHOME✗56%1.8xG-125fair-121mkt+0.8%

DRWDraw25%—xG+301fair+294mkt-0.5%

DCD.C. UnitedAWAY20%1.0xG+411fair+409mkt-0.1%

O2.5 54% · mkt 50% ✓BTTS 55% ✓

FT · 0–1

xG2.0–1.4

COLColorado RapidsHOME✗49%2.0xG+103fair+108mkt+1.2%

DRWDraw24%—xG+324fair+304mkt-1.2%

STLSt. Louis CITY SCAWAY27%1.4xG+268fair+270mkt+0.1%

O2.5 67% · mkt 60% ✗BTTS 67% ✗

FT · 1–1

xG1.8–1.6

SJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME✗41%1.8xG+146fair+239mktModel lean+11.2%

DRWDraw24%—xG+311fair+288mkt-1.5%

VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY35%1.6xG+186fair+124mkt-9.6%

O2.5 67% ✗BTTS 68% ✓

FT · 1–1

xG2.0–1.2

SEASeattle Sounders FCHOME✗56%2.0xG-130fair-153mkt-4.0%

DRWDraw23%—xG+332fair+368mkt+1.8%

SDSan Diego FCAWAY20%1.2xG+391fair+438mkt+1.8%

O2.5 62% ✗BTTS 61% ✓

FT · 6–0

xG2.0–1.1

PORPortland TimbersHOME✓57%2.0xG-134fair-170mkt-5.8%

DRWDraw23%—xG+335fair+415mkt+3.6%

SKCSporting Kansas CityAWAY20%1.1xG+404fair+482mkt+2.6%

O2.5 62% ✓BTTS 60% ✗

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).