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MLS Match Board — Saturday, May 9, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, May 9, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, May 9, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 258 of 449 on Over 2.5, 211 of 449 on BTTS.

Saturday, May 9

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 2–4
xG1.5–1.6
Match page →
TORToronto FCHOME34%1.5xG+192fair+350mktModel lean+12.0%
Draw26%—xG+281fair+363mktModel lean+4.7%
MIAInter Miami CFAWAY✓39%1.6xG+153fair-128mkt-16.7%
O2.5 59% ✓BTTS 62% ✓1H O1.5 40% ✓
FT · 1–3
xG2.7–1.3
Match page →
CHIChicago Fire FCHOME✗66%2.7xG-190fair-172mkt+2.3%
Draw18%—xG+452fair+416mkt-1.3%
RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY16%1.3xG+513fair+484mkt-0.8%
O2.5 77% ✓BTTS 69% ✓1H O1.5 54% ✗
FT · 2–0
xG1.9–1.4
Match page →
MTLCF MontréalHOME✓47%1.9xG+112fair+112mkt+0.1%
Draw24%—xG+312fair+313mkt+0.1%
ORLOrlando City SCAWAY29%1.4xG+250fair+255mkt+0.4%
O2.5 65% ✗BTTS 66% ✗1H O1.5 44% ✓
FT · 2–2
xG2.1–1.4
Match page →
CLTCharlotte FCHOME✗52%2.1xG-108fair+130mktModel lean+8.3%
Draw23%—xG+334fair+299mkt-2.0%
CINFC CincinnatiAWAY25%1.4xG+299fair+219mkt-6.3%
O2.5 67% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 67% ✓1H O1.5 46% ✗
FT · 1–2
xG1.6–1.4
Match page →
ATLAtlanta United FCHOME✗41%1.6xG+147fair+145mkt-0.2%
Draw27%—xG+277fair+277mkt+0.0%
LALA GalaxyAWAY33%1.4xG+204fair+203mkt-0.1%
O2.5 57% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 61% ✓1H O1.5 39% ✓
FT · 2–1
xG1.4–1.4
Match page →
NENew England RevolutionHOME36%1.4xG+178fair+178mkt+0.0%
Draw27%—xG+264fair+256mkt-0.6%
PHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY✗37%1.4xG+174fair+178mkt+0.5%
O2.5 54% · mkt 50% ✓BTTS 58% ✓1H O1.5 36% ✓
FT · 3–1
xG1.8–1.3
Match page →
DALFC DallasHOME✓49%1.8xG+104fair+135mktModel lean+6.5%
Draw25%—xG+302fair+299mkt-0.2%
RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY26%1.3xG+284fair+206mkt-6.6%
O2.5 61% ✓BTTS 62% ✓1H O1.5 41% ✗
FT · 2–2
xG1.8–1.0
Match page →
NSHNashville SCHOME✗56%1.8xG-125fair-121mkt+0.8%
Draw25%—xG+301fair+294mkt-0.5%
DCD.C. UnitedAWAY20%1.0xG+411fair+409mkt-0.1%
O2.5 54% · mkt 50% ✓BTTS 55% ✓1H O1.5 37% ✗
FT · 0–1
xG2.0–1.4
Match page →
COLColorado RapidsHOME✗49%2.0xG+103fair+108mkt+1.2%
Draw24%—xG+324fair+304mkt-1.2%
STLSt. Louis CITY SCAWAY27%1.4xG+268fair+270mkt+0.1%
O2.5 67% · mkt 60% ✗BTTS 67% ✗1H O1.5 46% ✓
FT · 1–1
xG1.8–1.6
Match page →
SJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME✗41%1.8xG+146fair+239mktModel lean+11.2%
Draw24%—xG+311fair+288mkt-1.5%
VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY35%1.6xG+186fair+124mkt-9.6%
O2.5 67% ✗BTTS 68% ✓1H O1.5 46% ✓
FT · 1–1
xG2.0–1.2
Match page →
SEASeattle Sounders FCHOME✗56%2.0xG-130fair-153mkt-4.0%
Draw23%—xG+332fair+368mkt+1.8%
SDSan Diego FCAWAY20%1.2xG+391fair+438mkt+1.8%
O2.5 62% ✗BTTS 61% ✓1H O1.5 42% ✓
FT · 6–0
xG2.0–1.1
Match page →
PORPortland TimbersHOME✓57%2.0xG-134fair-170mkt-5.8%
Draw23%—xG+335fair+415mkt+3.6%
SKCSporting Kansas CityAWAY20%1.1xG+404fair+482mkt+2.6%
O2.5 62% ✓BTTS 60% ✗1H O1.5 42% ✗

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).