MLS Match Board — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Every MLS match on Thursday, July 16, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Thursday, July 16, 2026 · how the model graded

ML1-2−1.5u

Over 2.52-1−1.0u

BTTS2-1—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Thursday, July 16

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 0–0

xG1.6–1.2

MTLCF MontréalHOME✗46%1.6xG+119fair+150mktModel lean+5.6%

DRWDraw27%—xG+275fair+279mkt+0.3%

TORToronto FCAWAY28%1.2xG+261fair+199mkt-5.8%

O2.5 55% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 58% ✗

FT · 3–2

xG2.2–1.1

STLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME✓62%2.2xG-162fair-192mkt-4.0%

DRWDraw22%—xG+365fair+431mkt+2.7%

SKCSporting Kansas CityAWAY17%1.1xG+499fair+551mkt+1.4%

O2.5 63% ✓BTTS 59% ✓

FT · 1–5

xG2.2–1.1

SEASeattle Sounders FCHOME✗61%2.2xG-155fair-164mkt-1.3%

DRWDraw22%—xG+360fair+399mkt+1.7%

PORPortland TimbersAWAY18%1.1xG+470fair+458mkt-0.4%

O2.5 64% ✓BTTS 60% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).