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MLS Match Board — Friday, July 17, 2026

Every MLS match on Friday, July 17, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Friday, July 17, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 258 of 449 on Over 2.5, 211 of 449 on BTTS.

Friday, July 17

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 1–0
xG1.9–1.1
Match page →
NSHNashville SCHOME✓55%1.9xG-121fair-157mkt-6.3%
Draw25%—xG+307fair+363mkt+3.0%
ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY21%1.1xG+386fair+472mkt+3.1%
O2.5 57% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 57% ✗1H O1.5 38% ✓
FT · 0–3
xG1.6–1.5
Match page →
LALA GalaxyHOME✗39%1.6xG+155fair+216mktModel lean+7.6%
Draw26%—xG+290fair+299mkt+0.6%
LAFCLAFCAWAY35%1.5xG+184fair+131mkt-8.1%
O2.5 61% ✓BTTS 64% ✗1H O1.5 42% ✗

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).