MLS Match Board — Friday, July 17, 2026

Every MLS match on Friday, July 17, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Friday, July 17, 2026 · how the model graded

ML1-1−0.4u

Over 2.51-1−1.0u

BTTS0-2—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Friday, July 17

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 1–0

xG1.9–1.1

NSHNashville SCHOME✓55%1.9xG-121fair-157mkt-6.3%

DRWDraw25%—xG+307fair+363mkt+3.0%

ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY21%1.1xG+386fair+472mkt+3.1%

O2.5 57% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 57% ✗

FT · 0–3

xG1.6–1.5

LALA GalaxyHOME✗39%1.6xG+155fair+216mktModel lean+7.6%

DRWDraw26%—xG+290fair+299mkt+0.6%

LAFCLAFCAWAY35%1.5xG+184fair+131mkt-8.1%

O2.5 61% ✓BTTS 64% ✗

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).