MLS Match Board — Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Every MLS match on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Wednesday, July 22, 2026 · how the model graded

ML5-10−5.5u

Over 2.511-4+0.2u

BTTS11-4—

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Wednesday, July 22

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 0–0

xG1.4–1.2

NENew England RevolutionHOME✗41%1.4xG+147fair+118mkt-5.3%

DRWDraw29%—xG+247fair+283mkt+2.7%

TORToronto FCAWAY31%1.2xG+226fair+258mkt+2.8%

O2.5 48% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 54% ✗

FT · 3–1

xG2.1–1.4

PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME✓55%2.1xG-120fair-120mkt+0.0%

DRWDraw22%—xG+345fair+345mkt+0.0%

RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY23%1.4xG+335fair+334mkt-0.0%

O2.5 68% ✓BTTS 66% ✓

FT · 1–2

xG1.5–1.2

CLBColumbus CrewHOME✗43%1.5xG+130fair+107mkt-4.8%

DRWDraw28%—xG+257fair+279mkt+1.6%

NYCNew York City FCAWAY29%1.2xG+250fair+291mkt+3.0%

O2.5 50% · mkt 51% ✗BTTS 55% ✓

FT · 3–2

xG2.5–1.7

MIAInter Miami CFHOME✓55%2.5xG-120fair+153mktModel lean+15.0%

DRWDraw20%—xG+394fair+321mkt-3.5%

CHIChicago Fire FCAWAY25%1.7xG+298fair+172mkt-11.7%

O2.5 78% ✓BTTS 75% ✓

FT · 4–3

xG1.5–2.3

CINFC CincinnatiHOME24%1.5xG+309fair+289mkt-1.2%

DRWDraw22%—xG+362fair+336mkt-1.3%

VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY✗54%2.3xG-117fair-107mkt+2.2%

O2.5 73% ✓BTTS 70% ✓

FT · 2–2

xG1.6–1.2

CLTCharlotte FCHOME✗46%1.6xG+116fair+116mkt-0.1%

DRWDraw27%—xG+275fair+279mkt+0.2%

ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY27%1.2xG+269fair+268mkt-0.1%

O2.5 54% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 58% ✓

FT · 1–1

xG1.6–1.2

HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME✗45%1.6xG+121fair-115mkt-8.2%

DRWDraw27%—xG+264fair+300mkt+2.5%

DCD.C. UnitedAWAY27%1.2xG+268fair+363mktModel lean+5.6%

O2.5 51% · mkt 54% ✗BTTS 56% ✓

FT · 2–1

xG1.4–1.7

SKCSporting Kansas CityHOME31%1.4xG+228fair+258mkt+2.6%

DRWDraw25%—xG+293fair+304mkt+0.7%

MINMinnesota United FCAWAY✗44%1.7xG+127fair+111mkt-3.2%

O2.5 61% ✓BTTS 63% ✓

FT · 1–0

xG1.9–1.2

NSHNashville SCHOME✓52%1.9xG-109fair-170mkt-10.8%

DRWDraw25%—xG+304fair+375mkt+3.7%

MTLCF MontréalAWAY23%1.2xG+334fair+531mktModel lean+7.2%

O2.5 59% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 60% ✗

FT · 3–1

xG1.4–1.7

ATXAustin FCHOME31%1.4xG+226fair+209mkt-1.7%

DRWDraw26%—xG+290fair+268mkt-1.6%

SEASeattle Sounders FCAWAY✗44%1.7xG+129fair+150mkt+3.7%

O2.5 60% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 63% ✓

FT · 1–0

xG2.0–1.5

COLColorado RapidsHOME✓50%2.0xG+101fair+105mkt+1.1%

DRWDraw23%—xG+333fair+316mkt-0.9%

SDSan Diego FCAWAY27%1.5xG+269fair+268mkt-0.1%

O2.5 69% ✗BTTS 68% ✗

FT · 3–1

xG2.0–1.1

LAFCLAFCHOME✓56%2.0xG-128fair-123mkt+1.0%

DRWDraw24%—xG+322fair+335mkt+0.7%

RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY20%1.1xG+395fair+356mkt-1.7%

O2.5 60% ✓BTTS 59% ✓

FT · 1–3

xG1.9–1.5

LALA GalaxyHOME✗48%1.9xG+110fair+130mktModel lean+4.1%

DRWDraw24%—xG+317fair+286mkt-1.9%

STLSt. Louis CITY SCAWAY28%1.5xG+252fair+228mkt-2.1%

O2.5 66% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 67% ✓

FT · 2–2

xG1.6–1.6

PORPortland TimbersHOME✗38%1.6xG+164fair+141mkt-3.6%

DRWDraw26%—xG+288fair+300mkt+0.8%

DALFC DallasAWAY36%1.6xG+176fair+199mkt+2.8%

O2.5 61% ✓BTTS 64% ✓

FT · 0–4

xG2.7–1.4

SJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME✗64%2.7xG-180fair-137mktModel lean+6.5%

DRWDraw18%—xG+445fair+381mkt-2.4%

ORLOrlando City SCAWAY17%1.4xG+476fair+360mkt-4.4%

O2.5 77% ✓BTTS 71% ✗

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).