MLS Match Board — Saturday, July 25, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, July 25, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, July 25, 2026 · how the model graded

2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 435 of 449 on ML, 252 of 449 on Over 2.5, 197 of 449 on BTTS.

Saturday, July 25

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge

FT · 0–2

xG1.7–1.6

RBNY

Red Bull New YorkHOME✗40%1.7xG+150fair+757mktModel lean+28.3%

Draw25%—xG+306fair+500mktModel lean+8.0%

CLT

Charlotte FCAWAY35%1.6xG+183fair-253mkt-36.3%

O2.5 66% ✗BTTS 67% · mkt 78% ✗1H O1.5 45% ✗

FT · 2–1

xG1.9–1.5

CLB

Columbus CrewHOME✓47%1.9xG+111fair+130mkt+3.9%

Draw24%—xG+315fair+298mkt-1.1%

CIN

FC CincinnatiAWAY28%1.5xG+252fair+221mkt-2.8%

O2.5 65% ✓BTTS 66% · mkt 66% ✓1H O1.5 45% ✗

FT · 3–1

xG1.7–1.5

NYC

New York City FCHOME✓41%1.7xG+145fair+157mkt+1.9%

Draw26%—xG+291fair+289mkt-0.1%

CHI

Chicago Fire FCAWAY34%1.5xG+197fair+182mkt-1.8%

O2.5 61% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 64% · mkt 62% ✓1H O1.5 42% ✗

FT · 4–1

xG1.5–1.3

New England RevolutionHOME✓41%1.5xG+144fair+126mkt-3.2%

Draw27%—xG+268fair+274mkt+0.4%

ATL

Atlanta United FCAWAY32%1.3xG+215fair+245mkt+2.8%

O2.5 54% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 59% · mkt 60% ✓1H O1.5 37% ✗

FT · 0–1

xG1.7–2.0

MTL

CF MontréalHOME34%1.7xG+198fair+211mkt+1.4%

Draw23%—xG+335fair+326mkt-0.5%

MIA

Inter Miami CFAWAY✓43%2.0xG+130fair+126mkt-0.9%

O2.5 72% ✗BTTS 72% · mkt 69% ✗1H O1.5 50% ✗

FT · 1–0

xG1.9–1.4

PHI

Philadelphia UnionHOME✓48%1.9xG+108fair-111mkt-4.6%

Draw25%—xG+308fair+314mkt+0.4%

SEA

Seattle Sounders FCAWAY27%1.4xG+264fair+333mktModel lean+4.4%

O2.5 63% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 64% · mkt 60% ✗1H O1.5 43% ✓

FT · 2–1

xG1.5–1.1

D.C. UnitedHOME✓44%1.5xG+130fair+117mkt-2.6%

Draw28%—xG+253fair+280mkt+2.0%

TOR

Toronto FCAWAY28%1.1xG+255fair+259mkt+0.3%

O2.5 49% · mkt 54% ✗BTTS 54% · mkt 58% ✓1H O1.5 33% ✓

FT · 3–0

xG1.7–1.0

HOU

Houston Dynamo FCHOME✓53%1.7xG-111fair-127mkt-3.3%

Draw26%—xG+285fair+320mkt+2.2%

ATX

Austin FCAWAY22%1.0xG+365fair+400mkt+1.5%

O2.5 52% · mkt 54% ✓BTTS 54% · mkt 55% ✗1H O1.5 35% ✗

FT · 0–0

xG1.4–1.9

MIN

Minnesota United FCHOME29%1.4xG+247fair+259mkt+1.0%

Draw25%—xG+308fair+304mkt-0.3%

VAN

Vancouver WhitecapsAWAY✗47%1.9xG+114fair+111mkt-0.7%

O2.5 64% · mkt 60% ✗BTTS 65% · mkt 62% ✗1H O1.5 44% ✓

FT · 1–0

xG1.8–1.3

STL

St. Louis CITY SCHOME✓48%1.8xG+107fair+109mkt+0.3%

Draw25%—xG+301fair+295mkt-0.4%

COL

Colorado RapidsAWAY27%1.3xG+273fair+271mkt-0.1%

O2.5 61% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 63% · mkt 60% ✗1H O1.5 41% ✓

FT · 1–0

xG1.7–1.6

ORL

Orlando City SCHOME✓38%1.7xG+163fair+180mkt+2.3%

Draw25%—xG+298fair+293mkt-0.3%

NSH

Nashville SCAWAY37%1.6xG+171fair+154mkt-2.5%

O2.5 64% · mkt 60% ✗BTTS 66% · mkt 64% ✗1H O1.5 43% ✓

FT · 1–0

xG1.7–1.6

San Diego FCHOME✓41%1.7xG+146fair+145mkt-0.1%

Draw25%—xG+302fair+308mkt+0.4%

DAL

FC DallasAWAY34%1.6xG+190fair+191mkt+0.1%

O2.5 64% ✗BTTS 67% · mkt 68% ✗1H O1.5 44% ✓

FT · 1–1

xG2.2–1.5

San Jose EarthquakesHOME✗53%2.2xG-115fair-101mkt+3.3%

Draw22%—xG+352fair+323mkt-1.5%

LA GalaxyAWAY24%1.5xG+310fair+278mkt-2.1%

O2.5 70% ✗BTTS 69% · mkt 66% ✓1H O1.5 49% ✓

FT · 4–0

xG2.5–1.0

LAFC

LAFCHOME✓70%2.5xG-234fair-317mkt-5.9%

Draw18%—xG+452fair+604mkt+3.9%

SKC

Sporting Kansas CityAWAY12%1.0xG+749fair+900mkt+1.8%

O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 58% · mkt 56% ✗1H O1.5 46% ✗

FT · 2–1

xG1.8–1.5

POR

Portland TimbersHOME✓43%1.8xG+132fair+159mktModel lean+4.6%

Draw25%—xG+301fair+315mkt+0.8%

RSL

Real Salt LakeAWAY32%1.5xG+213fair+166mkt-5.7%

O2.5 64% ✓BTTS 66% · mkt 70% ✓1H O1.5 44% ✓

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).