MLS Match Board — Saturday, July 25, 2026
Every MLS match on Saturday, July 25, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.
Saturday, July 25, 2026 · how the model graded
ML12-3+11.3u
Over 2.56-9−2.8u
BTTS6-9−6.0u
Season · all graded matches
ML161-153+8.7u
Over 2.5189-125−1.6u
BTTS199-115+2.5u
Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.
Saturday, July 25
MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge
FT · 0–2
xG1.7–1.6
RBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME✗40%1.7xG+150fair+757mktModel lean+28.3%DRWDraw25%—xG+306fair+500mktModel lean+8.0%
CLTCharlotte FCAWAY35%1.6xG+183fair-253mkt-36.3%O2.5 66% ✗BTTS 67% · mkt 78% ✗
FT · 2–1
xG1.9–1.5
CLBColumbus CrewHOME✓47%1.9xG+111fair+130mkt+3.9%DRWDraw24%—xG+315fair+298mkt-1.1%
CINFC CincinnatiAWAY28%1.5xG+252fair+221mkt-2.8%O2.5 65% ✓BTTS 66% · mkt 66% ✓
FT · 3–1
xG1.7–1.5
NYCNew York City FCHOME✓41%1.7xG+145fair+157mkt+1.9%DRWDraw26%—xG+291fair+289mkt-0.1%
CHIChicago Fire FCAWAY34%1.5xG+197fair+182mkt-1.8%O2.5 61% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 64% · mkt 62% ✓
FT · 1–0
xG1.9–1.4
PHIPhiladelphia UnionHOME✓48%1.9xG+108fair-111mkt-4.6%DRWDraw25%—xG+308fair+314mkt+0.4%
SEASeattle Sounders FCAWAY27%1.4xG+264fair+333mktModel lean+4.4%O2.5 63% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 64% · mkt 60% ✗
FT · 0–1
xG1.7–2.0
MTLCF MontréalHOME34%1.7xG+198fair+211mkt+1.4%DRWDraw23%—xG+335fair+326mkt-0.5%
MIAInter Miami CFAWAY✓43%2.0xG+130fair+126mkt-0.9%O2.5 72% ✗BTTS 72% · mkt 69% ✗
FT · 4–1
xG1.5–1.3
NENew England RevolutionHOME✓41%1.5xG+144fair+126mkt-3.2%DRWDraw27%—xG+268fair+274mkt+0.4%
ATLAtlanta United FCAWAY32%1.3xG+215fair+245mkt+2.8%O2.5 54% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 59% · mkt 60% ✓
FT · 2–1
xG1.5–1.1
DCD.C. UnitedHOME✓44%1.5xG+130fair+117mkt-2.6%DRWDraw28%—xG+253fair+280mkt+2.0%
TORToronto FCAWAY28%1.1xG+255fair+259mkt+0.3%O2.5 49% · mkt 54% ✗BTTS 54% · mkt 58% ✓
FT · 3–0
xG1.7–1.0
HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME✓53%1.7xG-111fair-127mkt-3.3%DRWDraw26%—xG+285fair+320mkt+2.2%
ATXAustin FCAWAY22%1.0xG+365fair+400mkt+1.5%O2.5 52% · mkt 54% ✓BTTS 54% · mkt 55% ✗
FT · 0–0
xG1.4–1.9
MINMinnesota United FCHOME29%1.4xG+247fair+259mkt+1.0%DRWDraw25%—xG+308fair+304mkt-0.3%
VANVancouver WhitecapsAWAY✗47%1.9xG+114fair+111mkt-0.7%O2.5 64% · mkt 60% ✗BTTS 65% · mkt 62% ✗
FT · 1–0
xG1.8–1.3
STLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME✓48%1.8xG+107fair+109mkt+0.3%DRWDraw25%—xG+301fair+295mkt-0.4%
COLColorado RapidsAWAY27%1.3xG+273fair+271mkt-0.1%O2.5 61% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 63% · mkt 60% ✗
FT · 1–0
xG1.7–1.6
ORLOrlando City SCHOME✓38%1.7xG+163fair+180mkt+2.3%DRWDraw25%—xG+298fair+293mkt-0.3%
NSHNashville SCAWAY37%1.6xG+171fair+154mkt-2.5%O2.5 64% · mkt 60% ✗BTTS 66% · mkt 64% ✗
FT · 1–0
xG1.7–1.6
SDSan Diego FCHOME✓41%1.7xG+146fair+145mkt-0.1%DRWDraw25%—xG+302fair+308mkt+0.4%
DALFC DallasAWAY34%1.6xG+190fair+191mkt+0.1%O2.5 64% ✗BTTS 67% · mkt 68% ✗
FT · 4–0
xG2.5–1.0
LAFCLAFCHOME✓70%2.5xG-234fair-317mkt-5.9%DRWDraw18%—xG+452fair+604mkt+3.9%
SKCSporting Kansas CityAWAY12%1.0xG+749fair+900mkt+1.8%O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 58% · mkt 56% ✗
FT · 2–1
xG1.8–1.5
PORPortland TimbersHOME✓43%1.8xG+132fair+159mktModel lean+4.6%DRWDraw25%—xG+301fair+315mkt+0.8%
RSLReal Salt LakeAWAY32%1.5xG+213fair+166mkt-5.7%O2.5 64% ✓BTTS 66% · mkt 70% ✓
FT · 1–1
xG2.2–1.5
SJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME✗53%2.2xG-115fair-101mkt+3.3%DRWDraw22%—xG+352fair+323mkt-1.5%
LALA GalaxyAWAY24%1.5xG+310fair+278mkt-2.1%O2.5 70% ✗BTTS 69% · mkt 66% ✓
Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).