MLS Match Board — Friday, July 31, 2026

Every MLS match on Friday, July 31, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Friday, July 31, 2026 · how the model graded

ML0-1−1.0u

Over 2.51-0+1.2u

BTTS1-0+0.7u

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Friday, July 31

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 1–1

xG1.6–1.0

NYCNew York City FCHOME✗49%1.6xG+105fair-132mkt-8.0%

DRWDraw28%—xG+263fair+328mktModel lean+4.2%

TORToronto FCAWAY24%1.0xG+324fair+401mkt+3.6%

O2.5 49% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 52% · mkt 57% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).