MLS Match Board — Saturday, August 8, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, August 8, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, August 8, 2026 · how the model graded

ML0-1−1.0u

Over 2.50-1−1.0u

BTTS0-1−1.0u

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, August 8

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 0–2

xG1.5–1.2

NENew England RevolutionHOME✗43%1.5xG+131fair+156mktModel lean+4.3%

DRWDraw28%—xG+258fair+267mkt+0.7%

HOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY29%1.2xG+248fair+197mkt-5.0%

O2.5 50% · mkt 55% ✗BTTS 55% · mkt 60% ✗

Apple TV

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).