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MLS Match Board — Saturday, August 15, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, August 15, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, August 15, 2026 · how the model graded
2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 435 of 449 on ML, 252 of 449 on Over 2.5, 197 of 449 on BTTS.

Saturday, August 15

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 1–1
xG2.2–1.9
Match page →
ORLOrlando City SCHOME✗46%2.2xG+118fair+138mkt+3.8%
Draw22%—xG+364fair+329mkt-1.7%
CINFC CincinnatiAWAY33%1.9xG+206fair+189mkt-2.0%
O2.5 78% ✗BTTS 76% · mkt 74% ✓1H O1.5 55% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 2–1
xG1.9–1.5
Match page →
ATLAtlanta United FCHOME✓47%1.9xG+115fair+103mkt-2.7%
Draw24%—xG+321fair+323mkt+0.1%
RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY30%1.5xG+236fair+267mkt+2.5%
O2.5 68% ✓BTTS 68% · mkt 69% ✓1H O1.5 47% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 3–1
xG1.5–1.2
Match page →
CLTCharlotte FCHOME✓42%1.5xG+136fair+137mkt+0.2%
Draw28%—xG+261fair+282mkt+1.5%
CLBColumbus CrewAWAY30%1.2xG+233fair+212mkt-2.0%
O2.5 52% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 57% · mkt 60% ✓1H O1.5 35% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 2–1
xG1.5–1.2
Match page →
TORToronto FCHOME✓44%1.5xG+128fair+129mkt+0.3%
Draw28%—xG+260fair+283mkt+1.7%
NENew England RevolutionAWAY28%1.2xG+253fair+230mkt-2.0%
O2.5 51% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 55% · mkt 61% ✓1H O1.5 34% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 1–1
xG1.7–1.4
Match page →
MTLCF MontréalHOME✗43%1.7xG+134fair+135mkt+0.0%
Draw26%—xG+290fair+277mkt-0.9%
DCD.C. UnitedAWAY32%1.4xG+216fair+223mkt+0.7%
O2.5 60% · mkt 55% ✗BTTS 63% · mkt 61% ✓1H O1.5 41% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–0
xG1.7–1.2
Match page →
HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME✓48%1.7xG+111fair-122mkt-7.4%
Draw27%—xG+277fair+328mkt+3.1%
LALA GalaxyAWAY26%1.2xG+285fair+366mktModel lean+4.5%
O2.5 54% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 57% · mkt 57% ✗1H O1.5 37% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 4–1
xG1.8–1.6
Match page →
NSHNashville SCHOME✓41%1.8xG+142fair+145mkt+0.4%
Draw24%—xG+312fair+293mkt-1.2%
MIAInter Miami CFAWAY34%1.6xG+190fair+195mkt+0.5%
O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 68% · mkt 68% ✓1H O1.5 46% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 2–0
xG2.1–1.0
Match page →
COLColorado RapidsHOME✓61%2.1xG-157fair-174mkt-2.4%
Draw22%—xG+349fair+406mkt+2.5%
SKCSporting Kansas CityAWAY17%1.0xG+502fair+504mkt+0.0%
O2.5 60% ✗BTTS 57% · mkt 60% ✗1H O1.5 41% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–1
xG1.7–1.3
Match page →
RSLReal Salt LakeHOME✗44%1.7xG+126fair-117mkt-9.6%
Draw26%—xG+282fair+298mkt+1.0%
MINMinnesota United FCAWAY30%1.3xG+238fair+363mktModel lean+8.0%
O2.5 58% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 61% · mkt 60% ✓1H O1.5 39% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 0–1
xG2.0–1.2
Match page →
LAFCLAFCHOME✗55%2.0xG-121fair-143mkt-4.2%
Draw23%—xG+329fair+372mkt+2.1%
SDSan Diego FCAWAY22%1.2xG+355fair+400mkt+2.0%
O2.5 63% ✗BTTS 63% · mkt 63% ✗1H O1.5 43% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–3
xG2.0–1.5
Match page →
SJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME✗50%2.0xG+100fair+118mkt+4.0%
Draw23%—xG+328fair+308mkt-1.2%
STLSt. Louis CITY SCAWAY27%1.5xG+273fair+235mkt-3.1%
O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 67% · mkt 66% ✓1H O1.5 46% ✗
Apple TV

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).