MLS Match Board — Saturday, August 15, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, August 15, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, August 15, 2026 · how the model graded

ML6-5+1.5u

Over 2.55-6−1.6u

BTTS8-3+0.9u

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, August 15

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 2–1

xG1.5–1.2

TORToronto FCHOME✓44%1.5xG+128fair+129mkt+0.3%

DRWDraw28%—xG+260fair+283mkt+1.7%

NENew England RevolutionAWAY28%1.2xG+253fair+230mkt-2.0%

O2.5 51% · mkt 56% ✓BTTS 55% · mkt 61% ✓

Apple TV

FT · 1–1

xG1.7–1.4

MTLCF MontréalHOME✗43%1.7xG+134fair+135mkt+0.0%

DRWDraw26%—xG+290fair+277mkt-0.9%

DCD.C. UnitedAWAY32%1.4xG+216fair+223mkt+0.7%

O2.5 60% · mkt 55% ✗BTTS 63% · mkt 61% ✓

Apple TV

FT · 1–1

xG2.2–1.9

ORLOrlando City SCHOME✗46%2.2xG+118fair+138mkt+3.8%

DRWDraw22%—xG+364fair+329mkt-1.7%

CINFC CincinnatiAWAY33%1.9xG+206fair+189mkt-2.0%

O2.5 78% ✗BTTS 76% · mkt 74% ✓

Apple TV

FT · 2–1

xG1.9–1.5

ATLAtlanta United FCHOME✓47%1.9xG+115fair+103mkt-2.7%

DRWDraw24%—xG+321fair+323mkt+0.1%

RBNYRed Bull New YorkAWAY30%1.5xG+236fair+267mkt+2.5%

O2.5 68% ✓BTTS 68% · mkt 69% ✓

Apple TV

FT · 3–1

xG1.5–1.2

CLTCharlotte FCHOME✓42%1.5xG+136fair+137mkt+0.2%

DRWDraw28%—xG+261fair+282mkt+1.5%

CLBColumbus CrewAWAY30%1.2xG+233fair+212mkt-2.0%

O2.5 52% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 57% · mkt 60% ✓

Apple TV

FT · 1–0

xG1.7–1.2

HOUHouston Dynamo FCHOME✓48%1.7xG+111fair-122mkt-7.4%

DRWDraw27%—xG+277fair+328mkt+3.1%

LALA GalaxyAWAY26%1.2xG+285fair+366mktModel lean+4.5%

O2.5 54% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 57% · mkt 57% ✗

Apple TV

FT · 4–1

xG1.8–1.6

NSHNashville SCHOME✓41%1.8xG+142fair+145mkt+0.4%

DRWDraw24%—xG+312fair+293mkt-1.2%

MIAInter Miami CFAWAY34%1.6xG+190fair+195mkt+0.5%

O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 68% · mkt 68% ✓

Apple TV

FT · 2–0

xG2.1–1.0

COLColorado RapidsHOME✓61%2.1xG-157fair-174mkt-2.4%

DRWDraw22%—xG+349fair+406mkt+2.5%

SKCSporting Kansas CityAWAY17%1.0xG+502fair+504mkt+0.0%

O2.5 60% ✗BTTS 57% · mkt 60% ✗

Apple TV

FT · 1–1

xG1.7–1.3

RSLReal Salt LakeHOME✗44%1.7xG+126fair-117mkt-9.6%

DRWDraw26%—xG+282fair+298mkt+1.0%

MINMinnesota United FCAWAY30%1.3xG+238fair+363mktModel lean+8.0%

O2.5 58% · mkt 59% ✗BTTS 61% · mkt 60% ✓

Apple TV

FT · 1–3

xG2.0–1.5

SJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME✗50%2.0xG+100fair+118mkt+4.0%

DRWDraw23%—xG+328fair+308mkt-1.2%

STLSt. Louis CITY SCAWAY27%1.5xG+273fair+235mkt-3.1%

O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 67% · mkt 66% ✓

Apple TV

FT · 0–1

xG2.0–1.2

LAFCLAFCHOME✗55%2.0xG-121fair-143mkt-4.2%

DRWDraw23%—xG+329fair+372mkt+2.1%

SDSan Diego FCAWAY22%1.2xG+355fair+400mkt+2.0%

O2.5 63% ✗BTTS 63% · mkt 63% ✗

Apple TV

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).