MLS Match Board — Sunday, August 23, 2026

Every MLS match on Sunday, August 23, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, August 23, 2026 · how the model graded

ML1-1−0.3u

Over 2.51-1−1.0u

BTTS2-0+1.1u

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Sunday, August 23

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 1–1

xG1.7–1.4

NENew England RevolutionHOME✗43%1.7xG+133fair+142mkt+1.6%

DRWDraw26%—xG+286fair+276mkt-0.7%

NYCNew York City FCAWAY31%1.4xG+221fair+213mkt-0.8%

O2.5 59% · mkt 55% ✗BTTS 62% · mkt 60% ✓

Apple TV

FT · 2–1

xG2.0–1.2

ATLAtlanta United FCHOME✓55%2.0xG-124fair-126mkt-0.4%

DRWDraw24%—xG+325fair+341mkt+0.9%

SKCSporting Kansas CityAWAY21%1.2xG+374fair+371mkt-0.1%

O2.5 61% ✓BTTS 61% · mkt 62% ✓

Apple TV

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).