MatchWiz
Scores Plays of the Day

MLS Match Board — Saturday, August 22, 2026

Every MLS match on Saturday, August 22, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, August 22, 2026 · how the model graded
ML6-7−1.2u
Over 2.58-5+0.4u
BTTS11-2+3.7u
Season · all graded matches
ML161-153+8.7u
Over 2.5189-125−1.6u
BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, August 22

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge
FT · 3–1
xG1.9–1.4
CLTCLTCharlotte FCHOME✓50%1.9xG-100fair-114mkt-3.2%
DRWDraw24%—xG+318fair+307mkt-0.6%
DCDCD.C. UnitedAWAY26%1.4xG+285fair+351mkt+3.8%
O2.5 64% · mkt 58% ✓BTTS 65% · mkt 60% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–2
xG2.4–1.2
MIAMIAInter Miami CFHOME✗62%2.4xG-165fair-237mkt-8.1%
DRWDraw20%—xG+395fair+537mktModel lean+4.5%
TORTORToronto FCAWAY18%1.2xG+471fair+622mkt+3.6%
O2.5 70% ✓BTTS 65% · mkt 70% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 2–2
xG1.8–1.4
MTLMTLCF MontréalHOME✗46%1.8xG+117fair+110mkt-1.6%
DRWDraw25%—xG+304fair+295mkt-0.6%
LALALA GalaxyAWAY29%1.4xG+242fair+271mkt+2.3%
O2.5 63% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 65% · mkt 62% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–1
xG1.8–1.8
RBNYRBNYRed Bull New YorkHOME37%1.8xG+170fair+146mkt-3.7%
DRWDraw24%—xG+321fair+328mkt+0.4%
CHICHIChicago Fire FCAWAY✗39%1.8xG+155fair+178mkt+3.3%
O2.5 69% ✗BTTS 70% · mkt 73% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 2–1
xG2.0–1.6
ORLORLOrlando City SCHOME✓46%2.0xG+117fair-114mkt-7.1%
DRWDraw23%—xG+327fair+352mkt+1.3%
RSLRSLReal Salt LakeAWAY30%1.6xG+229fair+306mktModel lean+5.8%
O2.5 69% ✓BTTS 70% · mkt 66% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–1
xG1.9–1.5
CINCINFC CincinnatiHOME✗46%1.9xG+115fair-148mkt-13.2%
DRWDraw24%—xG+321fair+385mkt+3.1%
SEASEASeattle Sounders FCAWAY30%1.5xG+236fair+400mktModel lean+9.8%
O2.5 67% ✗BTTS 68% · mkt 67% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 3–2
xG1.6–1.1
NSHNSHNashville SCHOME✓46%1.6xG+118fair-132mkt-11.1%
DRWDraw28%—xG+263fair+320mkt+3.7%
CLBCLBColumbus CrewAWAY27%1.1xG+275fair+411mktModel lean+7.1%
O2.5 51% · mkt 54% ✓BTTS 55% · mkt 55% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 2–1
xG1.5–1.1
STLSTLSt. Louis CITY SCHOME✓45%1.5xG+123fair+119mkt-0.9%
DRWDraw29%—xG+248fair+271mkt+1.8%
HOUHOUHouston Dynamo FCAWAY27%1.1xG+277fair+266mkt-0.8%
O2.5 46% · mkt 53% ✗BTTS 52% · mkt 57% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–1
xG1.4–1.8
ATXATXAustin FCHOME28%1.4xG+259fair+259mkt+0.0%
DRWDraw25%—xG+305fair+300mkt-0.3%
PHIPHIPhiladelphia UnionAWAY✗48%1.8xG+111fair+111mkt+0.2%
O2.5 63% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 64% · mkt 62% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 5–0
xG2.2–1.1
VANVANVancouver WhitecapsHOME✓60%2.2xG-149fair-166mkt-2.6%
DRWDraw22%—xG+355fair+389mkt+1.5%
DALDALFC DallasAWAY18%1.1xG+450fair+484mkt+1.1%
O2.5 64% ✓BTTS 61% · mkt 61% ✗
Apple TV
FT · 1–5
xG1.9–1.5
SJSJSan Jose EarthquakesHOME✗46%1.9xG+118fair+139mktModel lean+4.1%
DRWDraw24%—xG+314fair+300mkt-0.8%
MINMINMinnesota United FCAWAY30%1.5xG+234fair+199mkt-3.5%
O2.5 66% ✓BTTS 67% · mkt 66% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 1–1
xG1.9–1.3
LAFCLAFCLAFCHOME✗51%1.9xG-103fair-132mkt-6.1%
DRWDraw24%—xG+311fair+369mkt+3.0%
PORPORPortland TimbersAWAY25%1.3xG+301fair+359mkt+3.1%
O2.5 62% ✗BTTS 63% · mkt 65% ✓
Apple TV
FT · 3–0
xG1.7–1.4
SDSDSan Diego FCHOME✓42%1.7xG+137fair+111mkt-5.0%
DRWDraw26%—xG+287fair+302mkt+0.9%
COLCOLColorado RapidsAWAY32%1.4xG+213fair+259mktModel lean+4.1%
O2.5 60% ✓BTTS 63% · mkt 64% ✗
Apple TV

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).